The weekly 🐰 hole (30 Apr 23) of liquidity movement & DeFi analysis - by zj.valz
Welcome to the weekly 🐰 hole (30 Apr 23) of liquidity movements & defi analysis, where we uncover key trends and insights into the top protocols and hidden gems.
Hmmm… what if “Sell in May and go away” is all psyops by Beras….
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Stablecoin flows
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Smart Money Movement
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Top L1/L2 Financials
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Top DAPP Financials
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Movement Analysis
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TLDR
1. Stablecoin Flows
Total Stablecoin MCAP = 130.38 bil, with -0.32% weekly change.
Top 10 Chain (In terms of Stables Mcap):
Top inflows:
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Bittorrent
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Moonriver
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Hedera
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Waves
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Elrond
Top outflows:
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Everscale
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RSK
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Gnosis
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Kava
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Aurora
2. Smart Money Movement
Cr: @ozfrox
Top Smart money inflows (including stablecoins):
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Lido Staked ETH
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USDT
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Wrapped BTC
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USDC
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Coinbase Wrapped staked ETH
Top Smart money outflows (including stablecoins):
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Wrapped ETH
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DAI
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Blur
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agEUR
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Wrapped ETH (Arb)
Top Smart money inflows (excluding stablecoins):
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Lido Staked ETH
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Wrapped BTC
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Coinbase Wrapped staked ETH
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Balancer Aave v3 Boosted Stablepool
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Maker
Top Smart money outflows (excluding stablecoins):
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Wrapped ETH
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Blur
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agEUR
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Wrapped ETH (Arb)
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Frax Share
3. Top L1/L2 Financials
Fees-Generated
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ETH
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BTC
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BNB
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Arbitrum
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Optimism
Revenue
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ETH
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Tron
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Polygon
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Avalanche
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Arbitrum
Earnings
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ETH
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Tron
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Arbitrum
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BNB
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Tezos
DAUs
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Tron
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BNB
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BTC
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Polygon
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ETH
Active Developers
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ETH
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Cosmos
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Kusama
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Polkadot
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Cardano
Code Commits
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Cardano
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Internet Computer
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Kusama
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Polkadot
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ETH
4. Top DAPP Financials
Fees-Generated
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Lido
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Uniswap
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Venus
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GMX
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Convex
Revenue
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dYdX
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Synthetix
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GMX
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Lido
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Level
Earnings
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dYdX
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Lido
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GMX
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Venus
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Synthetix
P/F Ratio
Relative valuation of protocols (Lower the no. the “better”)
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Hegic
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Sonne Finance
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Venus
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Convex Finance
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Zyberswap
P/S ratio
FDV mcap/Annualized Revenue (Take this metric with a pinch of salt as revenue figs used could be annualized and not actual revenues earned)
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Hegic
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BetSwirl
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X2Y2
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Level
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MUX
DAUs
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Pancakeswap
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Uniswap
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Stargate
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Osmosis
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0x
5. Movement Analysis
Stablecoin flows:
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Total Stablecoin Market continues to drop this week as “Sell in May and go away” narrative takes hold.
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Stablecoins across top 10 L1/L2 are mixed, with no clear direction.
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Bittorrent saw a huge spike in USDT inflow this week.
Smart Money Movement:
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Smart money is reallocating back to stables, BTC and ETH as liquidity and risk appetite is drying up.
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Smart money is buying Lido Staked ETH as withdrawal risk will be eliminated once Lido V2 goes live, bringing the stETH-ETH peg closer to 1:1.
L1/L2 movement:
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Arbitrum remains profit-making with positive earnings despite the recent $ARB token distribution to over 100 projects earlier this week.
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Cosmos’ active developer base continues to increase, overtaking Kusama and Polkadot and fast catching up to ETH. We might see more innovative protocols launching there soon.
DAPP movements:
- Synthetix is crushing the revenue and earnings metrics this week, most likely due to the token incentive program that launched this week.
- Venus Protocol saw a significant increase in active loans this week ~18.3% with an attractive P/F ratio compared to Defi giants like AAVE and Compound.
- Alpha drop by @apes_prologue
6. TLDR
- Not much movement this week as we continue to crab sideways while waiting for Fed’s policy direction on 3rd May 2023. The market is predicting an 83.9% chance of another 25bps hike, which could drag down crypto prices.
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Focus on defensive plays (Stables, BTC and ETH) as we head into a volatile quarter.
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Short-term traders can capitalise on arbitraging ETH derivatives, with a number of them trading below ETH price.
- Start cutting losers/shitcoins and prepare dry powder to buy generational bottoms on cash-generating protocols.
P.s. I may have positions in the projects discussed in this article. Please note that this article is not intended as financial advice, and I encourage readers to conduct their own due diligence and ape responsibly.
That’s it Anon, hope you enjoyed the 🐰hole this week.
Follow me @zec_jay on Twitter or subscribe to this substack for more weekly deep dives.
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