Data From 2025-03-17 To 2025-03-23

Bitcoin Price Action

Between March 17 and March 23, Bitcoin opened at approximately $82,500 and closed at around $86,080. The price fluctuated between a low of $81,177 on March 18 and a high of $87,450 on March 20. Throughout the week, volatility surged, with rolling log-return volatility increasing fourfold from about 0.05% to 0.2%. These fluctuations were likely driven by geopolitical events and general market uncertainty.

Notably, the FOMC (FED) meeting on March 19 triggered a volatility spike to approximately 0.3% around 6 PM, leading to a 2.6% increase in Bitcoin's price within an hour. Over the weekend, volatility significantly decreased, averaging around 0.02%, compared to 0.05% on weekdays.

Miners Performance

Six miners were analyzed: the top three based on leaderboard scores at the start (midnight, March 17) and the top three at the end (11:59 PM, March 23). These were:

• Top miners at the start: Miners 90, 200, and 91.

• Top miners at the end: Miners 154, 92, and 57.

Performance was assessed using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values. Given the Synth subnet's new scoring system, final emission rewards are now a transformation of leaderboard scores, making additional discussion of those values redundant.

Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)

CRPS scores indicate model performance, with lower scores reflecting better results.

Volatility spikes, such as after the FOMC meeting, led to increased CRPS values (worsened performance), while stable periods, such as the weekend, improved scores. Miners 90, 91, and 200 performed well early in the week but struggled after the FED meeting volatility spike. Conversely, Miners 154, 92, and 57 performed better in the latter half, benefiting from both post-FED volatility and the calmer weekend conditions. Miner 154, in particular, started with poor CRPS values but showed significant improvement, securing the top leaderboard position by week’s end.

Leaderboard Scores

Leaderboard scores, now a moving average of CRPS values (and thus lower values indicate better performance) , reinforce the observed trends.

Miners 154 and 57 had high initial scores (above 5,000) but improved significantly, ending with scores near or below 1,000. Their performance surged as volatility shifted mid-week, helping them climb the leaderboard. Meanwhile, Miners 90, 91, and 200 saw gradual score deterioration from March 19 onward, ultimately losing their top spots.

Takeaways

• Miners who adapted to Bitcoin’s changing volatility performed best, especially under the new scoring system, which rewards sustained success over short-term luck.

• Bitcoin volatility differs significantly between weekdays and weekends (and between day and night hours). Incorporating these patterns into models can provide a competitive advantage.

• Recent increases in subnet registration costs aim to discourage multiple miner registrations for lottery-like rewards.

• To further emphasize long-term performance, the Synth team plans to extend the EWMA time window (currently set at four days) used in leaderboard calculations.