Data from 2025-03-24 To 2025-03-30

Bitcoin Price Action

Between March 24 and March 30, Bitcoin opened at approximately $86,800 and closed at around $82,300, representing a significant 5.2% decrease over the week. The price exhibited notable volatility, reaching a peak of approximately $88,300 on March 25 before experiencing a sharp decline following the release of the PCE Inflation Data on Friday, March 28 at 11:00 AM UTC.

The most dramatic price movement occurred immediately after the PCE inflation report, when Bitcoin dropped nearly $3,000 (3.5%) within hours. This decline continued through the weekend, with prices stabilizing around the $82,000 mark by week's end.

Throughout the week, the 5-minute rolling volatility showed several spikes, with the most pronounced occurring during the PCE data release. Interestingly, unlike the previous week where weekend volatility was significantly lower, this weekend maintained moderate volatility levels as the market continued to digest the inflation data.

Miners Performance

Six miners were analyzed: the previous week's top three performers (Miners 154, 92, and 57) and three new contenders (Miners 54, 148, and 232). Performance was assessed using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values.

We are going to comment on these miners’ performance based on the aggregated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values.

Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS)

Lower CRPS scores indicate better predictive performance.

The data reveals distinct patterns in miner performance throughout the week. All miners struggled significantly during the early part of the week (March 24-25), with CRPS values spiking to around 30,000, indicating poor model predictions during this period of high volatility. Miner 57 performed the worst, with CRPS values reaching 31,200.

Performance improved substantially mid-week (March 26-28) as market conditions stabilized, with CRPS values generally staying below 27,000. However, the PCE inflation data release on March 28 triggered another performance deterioration across all miners, though not as severe as earlier in the week.

The weekend period (March 29-30) showed the best performance for all miners, with CRPS values consistently trending downward to their lowest levels of the week, reaching values below 20,000. Miners 148 and 54 adapted particularly well to weekend conditions, showing the most consistent improvement during this period.

Leaderboard Scores

Lower leaderboard scores indicate better performance.

The leaderboard scores reflect the cumulative impact of the CRPS values throughout the week. Miner 232 started the week with the highest score (worst performance among the miners under examination) at around 3,000 points, but showed consistent improvement, eventually joining the top performers with a score around 900.

Miners 154 and 57, which were top performers in the previous week, maintained their strong positions throughout most of this week as well, particularly after the mid-week stabilization period. Miner 57 showed more volatility in performance, with scores fluctuating considerably.

By week's end, all six miners had converged to relatively close leaderboard scores between 800-1300, with Miners 148 and 54 showing the most dramatic improvements, dropping from mid-range scores to among the lowest (best) by Sunday.

Takeaways

• Economic Data Impact: The PCE inflation release demonstrated how significant economic indicators can create immediate volatility in crypto markets. Miners that quickly adapted their predictions before/after the data release performed best.

• Convergent Performance: The narrowing gap between top and bottom performers by week's end suggests that the extended EWMA time window (recently increased to four days) is having its intended effect of rewarding consistent performance over longer periods.

• Adaptation Speed: Miners showing the greatest improvement (particularly 148 and 54) demonstrated superior ability to recalibrate their models following the PCE-induced volatility, highlighting the importance of adaptive algorithms in changing market conditions.

• Weekend Resilience: Unlike the previous week where weekends showed significantly lower volatility, this weekend maintained moderate activity levels, reinforcing that miners should develop models that can adapt to changing market dynamics.