A new bull market has arrived!

Or has it? Now that SBF has been found guilty on all counts, observers concluded the bad juju from the last bear is behind us. Perhaps it is. I am not so sure.

New bull markets—in general, not just in crypto—are generally led by the speculative part of the market: newer and riskier ideas with potential to grow rather than the established players. Yet this recent rally has been largely led by the 800 pound gorilla of crypto.

My bias is to be skeptical of this rally, just like prior rallies at the beginning of the year and in June/July. Having said that, I do see some increased risk appetite under the surface—for example, brisk moves in RUNE, PENDLE, LINK, and SOL. But this is only in a few names.

Adding to this argument is the continued terrible breadth of the TradFi markets and the yield curve being inverted and close to normalization. The macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate.

Making predictions is hard—especially about the future. Many things could happen to surprise me: crypto decouples from macro, or the first soft landing after yield curve inversion since 1966 appears. Or something out of left field.

But as of now, the gm Portfolio remains largely in cash.