The Bitcoin ETF is finally here, which means we can all now ask: "When ETH ETF?"
The SEC's final decision is expected in May and some would argue that an approval looks almost certain. After all, ETH Futures ETFs have already been approved -- and Grayscale's legal victory over the SEC, which forced them to allow Bitcoin ETFs, hinged on the previous approval of ETFs for Bitcoin Futures. Therefore, denying the ETH ETF would drag the SEC into further legal battles that they would, inevitably, lose. At the same time, we have BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, putting their weight behind an ETH ETF as well -- just as they did for Bitcoin. The company's Chairman and CEO Larry Fink has even come out in the past few days to speak directly about his desire to see the ETH ETF approved, and he's a man with great sway in the American political system.
Still, SEC chair Gary Gensler continues to treat crypto with utter disdain, using his statement on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF to let everyone know that he was dragged kicking and screaming to that decision. His track record of launching, and largely losing, legal cases against various crypto firms suggests he doesn't care about how much of the Commission's time, money, or resources he wastes in frivolous lawsuits. Nor does he seem to care about the Commission's core aims of protecting investors and maintaining orderly and efficient markets. If he did, he would have approved the spot Bitcoin ETF many years ago, providing a safe and credible alternative to the unscrupulous offshore exchanges he claims to worry about and predatory TradFi products like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust -- something so toxic and harmful to investors that it essentially underpinned all of the failures in 2022's crypto catastrophe.No, it's demonstrably clear that Gensler cares about his own career above everything else. Every action he takes intends to bolster his image and score political points with the aim of, eventually, being promoted to Treasury Secretary. As such, it wouldn't be entirely surprising to see him deny the ETH ETF and embrace the legal battles just because he can, and because that's what his political allies probably want to see.
Therefore, I think it's important to not get too carried away with expectations here. We can hope for an ETH ETF this year, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet.
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Aside from "when ETH?", the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs raise some interesting and significant questions about the future of crypto. I explore those questions here.