On the night of July 22nd, 2024, and the following morning, rumors circulated on X (formerly Twitter) that Biden was under hospice care and had died. This turned out to be completely false. However, I wondered who was making or losing money during this period of wild speculation. First, a little back story.
How the Conspiracy Frenzy Started:
This all starts when the Biden administration releases a press release on July 17, 2024 that Biden has tested positive for COVID following an event in Las Vegas. (1) The following statement is also in the press release:
“He will be returning to Delaware where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time. The White House will provide regular updates on the President’s status as he continues to carry out the full duties of the office while in isolation.”
He would not be publicly seen again until the afternoon of July 23rd, 2024 at approximately 1:44 PM EST boarding Air Force One in Delaware. (2) Aside from the daily letters from Dr. O'Connor, the Physician to the President, detailing Biden's treatment and condition, very little information was provided. Notably, there were no videos or photos of Biden for five days. This was particularly unsettling for many, given that Biden had dropped out of the 2024 Presidential race during his absence from the public eye. The public has come accustomed to seeing the President regularly and with growing distrust of the government this created the perfect conditions for a conspiracy frenzy.
One of the biggest players in the frenzy is Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) a self-claimed Investigative Journalist on the social media platform X with 1.2m followers at the time of writing. In particular there is one tweet that was viewed 42.6m times on X where Laura claims Biden is dying on the night July 22nd, 2024. (3)
Additionally, the fact that Laura and others on X correctly predicted just days earlier that Biden would drop out of the Presidential race lent them an air of credibility, making them seem like they had insider information.
While Laura did not act alone in fueling the frenzy, her influence on X carried significant weight, sparking a wave of similar claims from other users. For a more detailed analysis of the X accounts spreading this conspiracy, the NYTimes article referenced below provides valuable insights.
The impact of the frenzy on Polymarket Betting Markets:
There are five Polymarket betting markets that I analyzed for impacts from the frenzy they are:
1. Biden Seen in Public Today? - $72,763 Volume
2. Kamala president by Friday? - $4,789,954 Volume
3.Will Joe Biden make an appearance by Wednesday? - $59,045 Volume
4.Will Joe Biden make an appearance today? - $422,425 Volume
5.Will Biden finish his term? - $21,717,929 Bet as of 9/23/24 - Still Active
The prices for these 5 markets plus Google Trend data can be found below in the embed graph or Tableau’s site here.
Methodology for Address Analysis:
My first priority for my address analysis was to see if I could find any social media influencers that were manipulating the markets for personal gain. I found no direct evidence of market manipulation, but I welcome others to review my tables. (The addresses in the tables are Safe Wallets Addresses created by Polymarket for each user, though they can be traced to what address(es) funded them or what address initiated the creation of the Safe Wallet on Polyscan).
The tables can be found here at Google Sheets.
For correct outcomes, profits are calculated for all shares bought before 2:00 PM on July 23, 2024 about 15 minutes after Biden is first seen in public again, using a first in first out cost basis (FIFO). Sells can happen at any time, up to the amount bought before the cutoff.
For incorrect outcomes, profits are calculated for shares bought and sold only before 2:00 PM on July 23, 2024, based on the logic that someone manipulating the market would not hold shares they knew to be based on false information. For example if a social media influencer bought shares for “Yes-Kamala President By Friday” then spread rumors / conspiracies that Biden was dead, but knew that was false / made up, once it was revealed he was alive these shares would go down.
For “Will Biden Finish His Term?” (Which is still active) profits are calculated like both “Yes” like correct and “No” like incorrect as “Yes” shares trended up after he made his public appearance on July 23rd, 2024. I will update these tables periodically. (Last updated September 23rd, 2024)
This data is produced with Dune Data for all buys/sells for each market then processed with Python code which can be found on my Github.
Final note on how I classify the data. Realized profits mean shares sold before the market has resolved, and unrealized profits are shares not sold before the market resolved. This is important to touch on as they are not really unrealized profits for markets that have resolved, as these shares are now worth $1 each for correct and $0 for incorrect. For active markets, though, the price of shares can still change, and unrealized profits will fluctuate.
3 Notable Winners:
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Address (0xfffe4013adfe325c6e02d36dc66e091f5476f52c) - “therealbatman”
Will Biden finish his term? - Yes - Active (Dune Link)(Paste the address into the search field at the bottom of the query results to see filled orders from this wallet)
This address is currently up $185,093.19 on shares bought before the cutoff. Most of this profit comes from two buys, one at 10:55 AM EDT on July 23, 2024 (three hours before Biden will be seen in public) in which $181,549.10 USDC was used to buy 302,581.84 shares at $0.60 each. The second large buy was 3:41 AM EDT on July 23, 2024 (about 10 hours before Biden will be seen in public) where $73,003.78 USDC was used to purchase 137,742.98 shares at $0.53 per share. These shares are currently trading at $0.88 per share. Notably, therealbatman has not sold any of their shares yet, meaning all of these profits remain unrealized. As of September 23rd this wallet has an unrealized profit ROI of 54.34% on their $340,642.97 cost basis before the cutoff.
Kamala president by Friday? - No - Correct (Dune Link)
The therealbatman also made $27,186.62 on “Kamala president by Friday?” market. This wallet bought 17% of all available “No” shares to achieve a 12.67% ROI on a total cost basis of $214,547.22.
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Address (0x40324412290b9d311f03b707467c61d88cf141a2) - “50-Pences”
Will Biden finish his term? - Yes - Active
It’s not surprising that that most of the big winners have traded the “Will Biden finish his term?” betting market as it has the most liquidity.
50-Pences like therealbatman bought most of their shares at peak conspiracy frenzy and has average buy in price of $0.57 per share. Unlike therealbatman though 50-Pences has locked in roughly 2/3 of their profit by selling 65% of their shares, yielding a profit of $103,532.19 (average sell of $0.78 per share) with $55,297.84 profit still unrealized.
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Address (0x574e3aa34743c81f8f9e65c38599e4da95e83ef1) - “coby”
Will Biden finish his term? - Yes - Active
What is interesting about this wallet is that while most total profit comes from whales using a large amount of volume to return 10% to 50% on their cost basis. This wallet currently holds an 88.55% ROI, with $35,404.97 USDC spent. I believe this wallet set up limit orders and this is why their average buy in is so low / their ROI is so high. With $31,350.99 in unrealized profits they certainly benefited from the frenzy.
3 Notable Losers:
While my primary focus was on detecting market manipulation rather than identifying losers, here are three notable losers from the betting markets I analyzed. Not including “Will Biden finish his term?” as this is still on-going with a end date of January 20, 2025. As we get closer to the end of Biden’s term I will take a closer look at this market.
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Address 0x715e4430442e3c7bf152041ac5a1a9d9b234e9df
Kamala president by Friday? - Yes - Incorrect
This wallet lost -$97,804.84 betting on “Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET”. Majority of this losing bet was placed on July 24th 2024, 2:45 PM EDT about 24 hours after Biden was seen in public. Some conspiracy theorists believed that the video of Biden boarding Air Force One in Delaware was old and that it was being used to cover up his death or serious illness.
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Address 0x1f5514a35cfe9ba669a3899acfde81ecde1d6f08 - “Lec”
Kamala president by Friday? - Yes - Incorrect
This wallet lost -$9,989.93 betting as well on “Kamala president by Friday” incorrectly with the biggest bet being placed at July 23, 2024 12:35 AM EDT which was right in the middle of the biggest part of the conspiracy frenzy.
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Address 0xd18f887f9da34cd6a40df582d7c6b18c25a9681e - “GWTycoon”
Will Joe Biden make an appearance today? - No - Incorrect
While this was not the third biggest loss that I found, it is interesting that this wallet lost -$7,274.56 but the next largest loss on this betting market was -$1,964.31. There were 13 wallets with losses between $1,000 and $2,000 but GWTycoon stands alone on this market with heavy losses.
Mainstream Media Coverage Of This Conspiracy :
What Do Conspiracy Theorists Do When Proved Wrong? Double Down or Move On. - The New York Times (Amazing article looking at the main X accounts that spread the conspiracy that Biden had died or was sick, as well as what they did after)
Elon Musk’s X boosts conspiracy theories that Biden is dead or dying - NBC News (Touches on how X facilitated this conspiracy theory)
The right pushed an absurd conspiracy theory about Biden after he dropped out - MSNBC News (Talks about Rep. Lauren Boebert’s influence demanding “proof of life”)
Conspiracy theories about Biden’s covid built on years of Trump rhetoric - The Washington Post (Talks about the conspiracy that Biden had a emergency in Las Vegas)
The Life and Death of the ‘Biden Is Dead’ Conspiracy Theory - The Bulwark (Reviews more tweets from various X accounts in relation to the conspiracy)
Personal Analysis and Closing Thoughts:
While I didn’t find any market manipulation on Polymarket in relationship to the conspiracies that took place on X, I believe this type of analysis will be critical in the future as the stakes and liquidity rise on Polymarket.
It was also interesting to see how Polymarket is in the middle of a cross road right now between amateur betters that are putting a couple hundred to a couple thousand down on bets and whales putting down several hundred thousand down.
Finally, if you suspect there was market manipulation on a Polymarket betting market, feel free to send me a message on my X profile.
Sources:
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Statement from Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre - July 17, 2024 (This is the press release that discloses that Biden has COVID)
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Red Alert Florida Tweet (Timestamp for when Biden will be seen in Public Again)
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