Liquidity Fragmentation and Moxie
January 8th, 2025

Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets, enabling seamless trading and efficient price discovery. However, the increasing fragmentation of liquidity has emerged as a significant challenge, particularly in the digital asset and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Liquidity fragmentation occurs when trading volume and capital are dispersed across multiple venues, exchanges, or protocols, rather than being concentrated in a single marketplace.

Not only is it a general problem, but it also represents a significant challenge for projects that aim to offer a vast universe of assets.

The value proposition seemed very rational. In real estate crowdfunding projects, we were presented with the opportunity to invest by specifically selecting each property showcased on the platform. This should have allowed us to better tailor the type of investment we wanted to make. For instance, one could choose to invest in properties located in a specific neighborhood within a particular city.

The reality of this possibility was that the cognitive effort required to make such a selection became an insurmountable barrier. About 99% of investors didn’t dedicate the time needed to choose better assets. Ultimately, the most reasonable solution was to delegate this selection and the diversification of investments to either predefined criteria or professionals. In essence, crowdfunding ended up being a step backward in financial innovation.

The success of Pump.fun, where thousands of assets are created, might seem to contradict the idea of fragmentation. However, upon closer analysis, it aligns with fragmentation because it serves a different purpose: discovering new assets. In this context, liquidity is less important than diversity. Statistics show that for one unicorn company (valued at $1 billion) to emerge, approximately 1,000 startups need to try. At this early stage, what truly matters is minimizing the transactional cost of investing in these projects, rather than liquidity. Liquidity becomes relevant at a later stage, which only a few projects will ultimately reach.

These assets will require a high expectation of appreciation to attract investment, as the risk of losing the entire capital is almost 100%.

The bet on fan tokens exposes the project to the challenge of liquidity fragmentation, further complicated by the fact that the expectations for appreciation do not seem particularly high. However, we could anticipate exceptional appreciation for Moxie if it manages to establish itself as one of the leading tokens in the Crypto Social Networks space.

Another major challenge is the cognitive effort required to select a portfolio of fan tokens that could form an excellent investment portfolio. This issue could partially be addressed by delegating the curation process to investors who dedicate more time to it. Perhaps an INDEX of the top fan tokens could make more sense, as it would capture a portion of the total value generated by the project.

It seems more logical for the FAN token to offer privileged access to the influencer, as this adds significant value to the relationship with these individuals. The most successful models have been those where this attention is limited to a certain number of participants and includes a mechanism for compensating the influencer, resembling a subscription. This could be funded by monetizing the assets locked in the bonding curve or through the influencer's earnings

What seems clear is that without a strong token price capable of generating a significant brand and high expectations, the ecosystem will be severely limited in resources. This is why I believe that without an incentive structure designed to support value capture for the token—offsetting all sales—it will be challenging to secure additional resources.

An excellent project like Moxie, in my opinion, has struggled to develop a strong culture or brand, and the downward trend in its price has been a significant drag on its growth. The design has not been optimal in addressing the sales driven by the short-term mindset of investors and providers who were given tokens.

Nevertheless, I believe it should not be too difficult to identify the key aspects needed to unlock the potential of the project, building on what has already been created so far.

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