What Goes Up Can Come Down

"A 100x increase is not that much." 

When I received that rebuttal, I was on a call to set mission and direction for an early-stage crypto organization. The organization's assets had skyrocketed and outpaced the systems and infrastructure, and we were debating adding new members against ownership dilution for existing members. And the group was concerned the assets would continue to moon, and other folks would take from our pie.

And crypto-asset increases were astronomical across the board. So, of course, everyone wanted more.

Enter FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried

FTX, a crypto exchange, was founded in May 2019 and, by January 2022, raised $400 million at a valuation of $32 billion. Its initial valuation was about $100 million, a 31,900% increase in less than two years. And that $32 billion valuation was supported by blue-blood investors.

To add context, the stock market has had the best historical returns at something like 10%. A good stock market decade may be closer to 15%.

Returning to the first comment, a 100x increase is a return of 9,900%. That number was being used as a baseline, not an upside case.

So, of course, folks saw stars across the crypto space.

But there's a hidden cost to the get-rich-quick mentality. And we've seen it the past few weeks with FTX's implosion - today, it's worthless.

When you throw a rock up into the air, it ascends quickly before returning to earth just as fast. To permanently raise its elevation, the rock's floor needs to increase - say, by carrying it up a mountain.

It's slower and takes more effort, but that's how long-term value is created. 

The crypto market and its players disconnected from reality, but what's true tends to find the light. If you look at a rock on the way up, it seems it will go up forever - to the heavens and beyond. But reality imposes the laws of physics, and while you're celebrating, it may hit your head on its return to earth.

The crypto space can create massive long-term value. But, like any gold rush, euphoria and excitement are bound by what is.

It's sad we learn these lessons by harming ourselves. People lost massive wealth and well-being, and the space was damaged by what happened.

Yet we grow stronger when malignant growths are removed so healthy growth can bloom. Of course, that's not much solace to those harmed, but there is a fresh opportunity for us all.

Even if it's not at 100x returns.

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