Please note that the title ends with a "?" rather than an "!". I sincerely hope Trump’s “Pump and Dump” won’t become a reality. Right now, the story is just beginning, and the conclusion could take many forms. However, one thing is certain: Trump is orchestrating the most audacious pump in history.
On January 18, 2025, just three days before his inauguration, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump launched a memecoin called "$TRUMP." This move instantly went viral on social media, and within just three hours, its market cap soared to $9 billion, surpassing well-known memecoins like Pepe and Bonk.
Why did it achieve such success? Because the "pump" is powered by the most influential figure in history: the President of the United States.
As for the "dump," that remains uncertain. It may have already started, as evidenced by the actions of a mysterious trader, or it may not have begun yet since 80% of the tokens are still locked. This will be explored in detail later. Also, I do not recommend novice investors to dabble in memecoins like this. For seasoned traders who want to join this "spectacle," I will suggest a relatively low-risk strategy at the end.
First, a disclaimer: I hold no position on Trump’s memecoin launch. I am merely analyzing this event as an observer. Regardless of $TRUMP's future price, the fact that a U.S. President launched a memecoin is a milestone in the history of blockchain development. This event could act as a strong catalyst for blockchain's advancement, or it could deepen public perceptions of cryptocurrency as speculative and risky, thereby hindering its adoption in mainstream markets. No matter how much Trump “supports” blockchain, his term only lasts four years. After that, we may once again face a harsh regulatory backlash.
This bold maneuver by Trump is a direct challenge to the regulatory landscape surrounding tokenization and securitization in the U.S., particularly in the wake of the resignation of the former SEC chair. As a public figure who has consistently attracted attention through controversy, Trump once again places himself at the intersection of U.S. financial markets and political discourse.
1. The Facts
Trump’s memecoin was launched on the Solana blockchain using the Moonshot platform, a tool that supports payment options like Apple Pay and credit cards, making it a critical vehicle for memecoin issuance. On its first day, Moonshot became the top finance app on the U.S. Apple Store and ranked seventh overall in downloads.
The token issuance strategy was nothing short of “ingenious”: only 200 million tokens, accounting for 20% of the total supply, were issued initially. Over the next three years, the supply is set to expand gradually to 1 billion tokens. However, the most controversial aspect lies in its allocation structure—80% of the tokens are reserved for "creators and CIC Digital," with only 10% available to the public and the remaining 10% allocated for liquidity pools. We’ll delve into why this allocation is so contentious later.
Trump confirmed his direct involvement with $TRUMP through a post on X:
"It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING! Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW."
The $TRUMP token quickly surged to a $9 billion market cap, becoming the fastest-growing memecoin in history. This event not only propelled Solana’s price to new highs but also drove decentralized exchange tokens like Jupiter and Raydium up by 33% and 20%, respectively.
2. The Doubts
Memecoins inherently lack intrinsic value, yet their short-term high volatility and speculative nature attract numerous investors chasing the “get-rich-quick” myth. Trump's political influence and strong social media presence further amplified the token's market impact.
However, two major issues—unfair token distribution and ambiguous funding sources—have rapidly surfaced, casting serious doubts on the project’s ethics and legitimacy. Let’s break these down.
2.1 Unfair Distribution: Who Controls the 80%?
The allocation of $TRUMP tokens has become the focal point of controversy. Official disclosures reveal that 80% of the tokens will be unlocked over three years and allocated to "creators and CIC Digital." But what is CIC Digital? It’s a company linked to the Trump family, directly associated with the previous launch of Trump NFT trading cards. In other words, these 80% of tokens are likely to end up in the hands of Trump, his family, or his inner circle.
From a distribution standpoint, this means the public only receives 10% of the tokens. This allocation was further skewed on the first day, as whales and early investors quickly snapped up a significant portion of these public tokens. Adding the 10% set aside for liquidity pools, ordinary investors are left with very little room to participate. Such highly concentrated distribution is not uncommon in the crypto space, but its essence is to ensure that most of the profits remain firmly controlled by a select few. Moreover, as the lock-up period ends and these 80% tokens gradually enter the market, significant price fluctuations are almost inevitable.
As renowned blockchain analyst CoffeeZilla commented on social media X, “80% of the tokens unlocking during Trump’s presidency is an ‘unprecedented’ allocation scheme.” Such a mechanism easily evokes comparisons to the classic “pump and dump” model.
2.2 Ambiguous Funding Sources: Where’s the Money From?
The initial liquidity funding for $TRUMP has also raised eyebrows. Blockchain tracing platforms indicate that CIC Digital’s initial liquidity pool was sourced from Gate.io and Binance. While this might seem unproblematic on the surface, neither of these exchanges currently holds the necessary licenses to operate legally in the United States.
This murky funding source not only raises concerns about the project’s legality but also sets the stage for future regulatory scrutiny. If the SEC or other regulatory bodies decide to investigate the flow of funds, the $TRUMP liquidity pool could become a focal point. Whether this leads to legal entanglements remains to be seen, but it undoubtedly casts further doubt on the project’s ethical standards and credibility.
Beyond these two major concerns, there’s also the story of a “genius trader,” which has led many to suspect insider trading.
3. The Twist
A story about a genius trader who reportedly achieved a 90x return by trading Trump’s memecoin is now making the rounds.
When Trump announced the launch of "$TRUMP" on Truth Social, many people’s first reaction was—this must be a hack. After all, with the recent resignation of the SEC chairman, the idea of Trump launching a token seemed utterly far-fetched. However, while most were still skeptical, a "genius trader" acted with lightning speed, seizing the opening act of this "epic pump."
3.1 The Start: Two Minutes to Define Fate
Within two minutes of the announcement, this mysterious trader—referred to by blockchain analysis platform LookOnChain as “ff.sol”—decisively invested $1.09 million USDC on Solana’s Meteora market, purchasing 5.7 million $TRUMP tokens. His speed was jaw-dropping. While ordinary investors were still questioning the legitimacy of the news, this trader had already executed a flawless on-chain operation.
Even more astonishing, he paid an $85,000 tip to Jito, a Solana infrastructure company specializing in MEV (Miner Extractable Value) optimization. Why pay such a high fee? Because Jito allows transactions to be prioritized at the top of blocks through high fees, ensuring his order was processed first. This not only showcased technical prowess but also unparalleled capital efficiency.
3.2 Buy Low, Sell High: Textbook Arbitrage
Over the next few hours, the trader began executing textbook arbitrage maneuvers. He transferred portions of his $TRUMP tokens to multiple wallets and sold them gradually across different exchanges. According to LookOnChain, he sold 1.35 million tokens, cashing out $3.65 million. At the same time, he used part of his earnings to buy back $TRUMP tokens to continue taking advantage of price fluctuations.
This strategy not only allowed the trader to reap enormous profits in a short time but also cleverly avoided triggering a market crash caused by large-scale sell-offs. His remaining holdings were approximately 4.62 million $TRUMP tokens, valued at $87 million based on the prevailing market price. Adding the $3.65 million he had already cashed out, his total assets skyrocketed from $1.09 million to $90 million within a matter of hours—a nearly 90x return!
3.3 On-Chain Distribution: The Art of Confusing Traces
This trader’s actions were not just about making money; they resembled an artful performance of "on-chain misdirection." By distributing tokens across multiple wallets, he successfully obscured the flow of funds. Some tokens were transferred to wallets with Solana name identifiers, while others were directly converted to USDC or reinvested. This "distributed trading" technique not only made it difficult for average users to track but also forced professional blockchain analysts to spend significant time reconstructing his fund pathways.
3.4 Questions Behind the Genius
This trader’s precise actions raised numerous questions. How was he able to complete such a precise purchase just two minutes after the announcement? Why was he so confident that this token wasn’t a scam? More importantly, how did he know when to sell and why to repurchase portions of the tokens?
Some market observers speculate that the trader may have had ties to the token’s issuance team or even directly participated in the project’s design and execution. Others believe he might be a seasoned "hunter" in the memecoin space who sniffed out the opportunity through subtle clues on social media.
Regardless of the truth, this trader’s story has added a dramatic twist to the entire $TRUMP event. Undoubtedly, he is the big winner in this "pump story."
Yet, as the classic rule of the crypto world goes—behind every pump, there’s always a dump. As market enthusiasm gradually cools, the ultimate fate of $TRUMP remains a suspenseful tale.
4. Predictions
To forecast the future of $TRUMP, one could look to another crypto project endorsed by Trump, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), as a reference. Its trajectory might provide a metaphor for $TRUMP’s potential outcomes.
4.1 WLFI: Grand Entrance, Quiet Exit
In October 2024, WLFI launched to significant fanfare. As a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, WLFI positioned itself as a governance token promoting the adoption of stablecoins, claiming to reshape the digital economy. What drew even more attention was the project’s political branding, boldly declaring, “Crypto is the future.”
On its first day, WLFI sold $6.1 million worth of tokens at $0.015 each. However, compared to its fully diluted valuation of $1.5 billion, this performance seemed underwhelming. Despite Trump’s frequent endorsements on social media and several crashes of the project’s website due to high traffic, the hype ultimately failed to translate into sustained market confidence.
WLFI’s token distribution strategy also sparked controversy. The governance tokens were non-transferable for the first year, with 63% allocated for public sales, 17% for user rewards, and the remaining 20% for the team. Critics argued that this structure didn’t truly achieve decentralization but instead made the project appear like a “wealth game designed for the few.”
After an initial small peak, market sentiment for WLFI quickly cooled. By early 2025, the token price had almost returned to its starting point, and public interest had waned. The Trump endorsement failed to sustain its luster for this project.
4.2 Three Potential Outcomes for $TRUMP Based on WLFI
Building on WLFI’s lessons, we can make three bold predictions for $TRUMP’s future:
Outcome 1: Pump and Dump, Fading HypeA straightforward scenario would see $TRUMP replicate WLFI’s trajectory of a “grand launch, quiet retreat.” The initial frenzy would attract a wave of speculators, but over time, the public might recognize the token’s lack of substance, combined with the selling pressure from token unlocks. This could lead to a sharp decline in market value.
The 80% of tokens held by Trump’s inner circle poses a significant risk. As these tokens gradually unlock, they are likely to be liquidated for profit, causing a flood of supply and immense downward pressure on the price. Ultimately, $TRUMP might become a fleeting firework in the crypto market.
Outcome 2: Sustained Hype, Legendary MemecoinOn the flip side, $TRUMP could defy expectations and become a legendary memecoin. Memecoins thrive on attention, and Trump undoubtedly commands unparalleled influence. As long as Trump continues to generate buzz for $TRUMP through his social media influence, market enthusiasm could be sustained.
Trump might also create additional use cases for $TRUMP, such as NFT airdrops or special membership perks, further boosting demand for the token. If this strategy persists, $TRUMP could cement itself as a cultural icon in the memecoin market.
Outcome 3: Regulatory Intervention, Abrupt HaltAnother plausible scenario involves regulatory intervention bringing everything to a halt. The crypto market has long been a focus of regulatory scrutiny, and the high-profile launch of $TRUMP places it squarely in the crosshairs of the SEC and other regulatory bodies.
The ambiguous sources of its initial funding and its highly concentrated token allocation could serve as entry points for investigations. If regulators determine that $TRUMP is guilty of market manipulation or illegal securities issuance, the project could be forcibly shut down, leaving investors to bear significant losses.
4.3 Commonalities Between WLFI and $TRUMP
Despite their differences—one being a DeFi project and the other a memecoin—WLFI and $TRUMP share the following traits:
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Political Branding and Market Hype: Trump’s political influence provides attention and traffic, but this short-term boost cannot mask the structural issues within the projects.
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Controversial Token Distribution: Both projects concentrate token ownership among a select few, contradicting the decentralized ethos of crypto.
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Regulatory Risks and Long-Term Uncertainty: Both face significant regulatory risks. Any investigation could swiftly turn these projects from hot topics to market liabilities.
4.4 The Suspense of the Future
The story of $TRUMP is just beginning, and its conclusion remains uncertain. One thing is clear: regardless of its outcome, this event will leave a lasting mark on blockchain history.
For investors, navigating high-risk, high-reward projects like $TRUMP requires a cool head. While the “pump” may be exciting, the inevitable “dump” often tells a harsher truth. In the crypto market, opportunities and risks coexist, and only rationality and caution can secure a win in the end.
5. Participation
First, let’s be clear: I do not recommend beginners to participate in memecoins like $TRUMP. These tokens are highly volatile and speculative, which makes it challenging for novices to handle the extreme price swings and complex market dynamics. For seasoned investors, while it may be tempting to take advantage of this "historic event," it's crucial to remember that risks abound—especially when heightened market enthusiasm often conceals significant uncertainties.
5.1 Asymmetric Liquidity Mining: A Relatively Conservative Approach
For those experienced traders who are determined to participate, asymmetric liquidity mining may offer a relatively lower-risk method. For instance, platforms like Raydium or Orca allow you to provide single-sided liquidity for $TRUMP, enabling you to earn transaction fees while avoiding the risks associated with holding large amounts of the token directly.
The image above illustrates a position I took using SOL to participate in the SOL-TRUMP liquidity pool. Notice the asymmetric price range marked in the box. This essentially means that the price of TRUMP would have to drop 100x before my SOL holdings are fully converted to TRUMP.
Why choose asymmetric liquidity mining?
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Avoid direct exposure to price volatility: By providing liquidity, you don’t have to hold $TRUMP directly, reducing potential losses from a price collapse.
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Earn transaction fees: The high trading volume of memecoins can generate substantial fee income, especially during periods of heightened market activity.
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Liquidity can be withdrawn at any time: Compared to direct investment, liquidity mining offers more flexibility for exiting, reducing the likelihood of being trapped by market sentiment.
5.2 Potential Risks: Bear Markets Know No Bottom
While liquidity mining is a relatively conservative approach, it is not without its risks:
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Token prices could drop to zero: Memecoins are extremely volatile, especially once market hype fades. If the price collapses, even the transaction fees earned through liquidity mining may not offset the potential loss of your overall assets.
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Unpredictable impermanent loss: Impermanent loss is an inherent risk in liquidity mining. During periods of sharp price fluctuations, the impermanent loss can far exceed any fees earned.
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Project-specific risks: $TRUMP comes with significant project-specific risks. Regulatory investigations or a massive sell-off by the team could cause the liquidity you provide to lose its value instantly.
5.3 Participation Principles: Strict Risk Control
For those willing to participate, keep the following principles in mind:
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Limit investment to no more than 5% of total assets: Risk management is critical in the crypto market. Memecoins are high-risk assets, so ensure that your investment does not exceed 5% of your total portfolio. Even if the token price drops to zero, the impact on your overall assets will be minimal.
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Set clear stop-loss points: Establish a clear stop-loss threshold before entering the market. If the token price experiences sharp declines or approaches zero, exit decisively. Do not overestimate your ability to predict the market—markets often behave more destructively than anticipated.
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Avoid using leverage: While leverage can amplify returns, it also exponentially increases risk. In extreme market conditions, leveraged positions can lead to rapid liquidation.
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Monitor market dynamics in real-time: The market sentiment for memecoins, especially those backed by celebrities like $TRUMP, can change rapidly. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategy promptly to reflect current conditions.
Conclusion
Who would have imagined that the transformative potential of "tokenization" would be showcased to the world through the theatrical and controversial launch of a memecoin by a former U.S. president?
Yet, this seemingly absurd spectacle reveals the core allure of blockchain and tokenization: the ability to project future value into the present as digital assets, enabling rapid liquidity and monetization.
This ability to turn "expectations" into "immediacy" functions like a "wealth time machine." While reminiscent of traditional stock markets in terms of function, it offers greater global liquidity and far more accessible entry points.
The blockchain-enabled "Internet of Value" is accelerating its formation. In the future, anything from artwork and game assets to political IP and commercial rights can be swiftly brought into larger, more efficient global markets through tokenization.
As for how the crypto industry and financial regulators will eventually find harmony, the process remains full of uncertainties—just as the former SEC chairman once warned. But in the long run, it is precisely this power to "bring future value into the present" that continues to drive the world toward the next wave of digital financial transformation at an ever-increasing pace.
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