What if there were a technology capable of instantly cracking the world’s most secure vaults? Would Bitcoin still have a future?

Enter quantum computers—the "superweapon" of the tech world, transitioning steadily from science fiction to reality. Recently, Google unveiled its latest quantum chip, "Willow," claiming it can solve problems that are impossible for conventional supercomputers to tackle quickly. This raises an unsettling question: If quantum computing becomes mainstream, can Bitcoin and blockchain technology remain secure?

The answer is yes—Bitcoin is still safe, and here’s why, in three key points (detailed later).

But let's be real: the threat of quantum computers has always loomed over the cryptographic community, like a sword hanging by a thread. Years ago, I delved deep into this topic and wrote an article titled The Bitcoin Community Has Severely Underestimated the "Quantum Supremacy" Challenge. It’s worth a read when you have the time.

Once you grasp the power of quantum computing, you’ll understand that this isn’t just fear-mongering.

1. Quantum Computers: The Superheroes of Technology

Let’s imagine quantum and classical supercomputers as two people playing a maze-solving game.

The classical computer is like a cautious explorer at the maze entrance. It takes one step at a time, methodically trying each path. If it hits a dead end, it backtracks and starts over. For a massive maze, this process could take millions of years.

The quantum computer, on the other hand, is like a superhero with the power of duplication. It creates countless copies of itself to explore all possible paths simultaneously. Within seconds, it yells, “Here’s the exit!”

How does this “duplication” work? The magic lies in quantum bits, or qubits. Regular bits, used in classical computers, can represent either 0 or 1—like a switch being on or off. Qubits, however, can exist in a superposition of both 0 and 1 simultaneously. In the maze analogy, this allows the quantum computer to probe all paths at once instead of trying them sequentially.

Even more astonishing is quantum entanglement. When two qubits are entangled, they behave like twins with a psychic connection—changing the state of one instantaneously affects the other, no matter the distance between them. This allows quantum computers to process information at speeds that make even light look slow.

Think this is an exaggeration? Google has already demonstrated that tasks taking traditional supercomputers 10,000 years to complete can be done in minutes with a quantum computer. For instance, its earlier 53-qubit quantum computer performed a random number sampling task that classical computers would struggle with for millennia. The newly released Willow chip has further enhanced stability and error correction, bringing practical quantum computing closer than ever.

2. Quantum Computers vs. Bitcoin

Imagine you own a vault secured by an advanced combination lock. The lock’s mechanism relies on a mathematical problem—factoring large numbers into primes. Cracking it with a regular computer could take millions of years, so you sleep soundly, believing the vault is impregnable.

Bitcoin’s security is akin to this vault. It depends on cryptographic methods like RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which rely on the difficulty of solving such problems. For classical computers, cracking them is like an ant trying to bite through a boulder—it’s practically impossible within any reasonable time frame.

But quantum computers are a different beast. They come equipped with a universal skeleton key: Shor’s Algorithm. This quantum algorithm is exceptionally good at tackling problems based on prime factorization, including those that underpin RSA and ECC. Tasks that would take classical computers millions of years become trivial for a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. In essence, if quantum computing advances far enough, Bitcoin’s "vault lock" could be broken.

That said, Bitcoin’s security doesn’t rely solely on encryption. Its second layer of defense is the hash function, specifically SHA-256. Hash functions aren’t about encryption; they ensure data integrity. Think of them as a fingerprint system for every "brick" in Bitcoin’s blockchain. Any tampering is immediately evident to everyone.

For now, quantum computers are not very good at cracking hash functions. Breaking SHA-256 would require a quantum computer with millions of stable qubits—something far beyond today’s capabilities. While the threat is not immediate, it cannot be ignored in the long run.

3. Can Bitcoin Weather the Quantum Storm?

For the moment, quantum computers are not advanced enough to jeopardize Bitcoin, for three reasons:

1. **Quantum computing is still in its infancy.**Google’s Willow chip, with 105 qubits, represents a significant leap forward, especially in error correction, allowing calculations impossible for classical supercomputers in practical timeframes. But this progress is still light-years away from the level needed to crack Bitcoin. To break Bitcoin’s encryption, you’d need millions of stable qubits, which are notoriously fragile and prone to interference. Today’s quantum computers are more like brilliant lab apprentices than all-powerful hackers.

2. **The blockchain community isn’t sitting idle.**Researchers have long been developing post-quantum cryptography—next-generation encryption that’s immune to quantum attacks. These new techniques are akin to upgrading vaults into high-tech fortresses. Moreover, blockchain technologies are continuously evolving, ready to counter any breakthroughs in quantum computing.

3. **Quantum attacks are not cost-effective.**Using a quantum computer to crack Bitcoin would be astronomically expensive and energy-intensive. It’s like using a diamond-encrusted hammer to crack a walnut—technically possible, but absurdly inefficient. It’s far easier (and more profitable) to mine Bitcoin legitimately.

Conclusion: Ethereum Leads the Way; Bitcoin Needs to Catch Up

While quantum computers are a distant storm cloud, Ethereum has already started preparing for the downpour. Its upcoming Pectra upgrade, though focused on performance, incorporates long-term plans for quantum-resistant cryptography. This forward-thinking approach sets a benchmark for the blockchain industry.

Bitcoin, by contrast, seems slower to respond. While some developers are exploring quantum-resistant solutions—like lattice-based cryptography and NIST-approved quantum-safe algorithms—progress has been sporadic and fragmented.

In the face of the quantum revolution, neither Ethereum nor Bitcoin can afford to lose. The stakes are simply too high.

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