无为Be Water@crypto

无为Be Water@crypto

Macro research and market insights for crypto natives. Fundamental Investor, the street veteran, 5yrs trading&research in crypto. CFA.
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W18:Market Insights —Inflation, Recession and Crypto Market

From the beginning of 2023, the focus of the capital market in the first two months was mainly on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which depends on inflation data (CPI). Consequently, the market mainly traded inflation. Since Dec. 2022, CPI data shows that the peak has passed, and the market generally expects inflation to fall back continually. The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes or cut interest rates this year. With the improvement of liquidity expectations, the Nasdaq sector's high-tech stocks have strengthened. During this period, the cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, showed more characteristics of risky assets and had a positive correlation with high-tech stocks.

W18:市场观察—通胀、衰退与加密货币

23年开年以来,1-2月份资本市场的关注点主要集中在美联储的货币政策,而美联储的货币政策主要取决于通胀数据,因此表现为市场交易通胀为主。自22年12月以来,CPI数据显示高点已经过去,市场普遍预期通胀回落后,美联储或将减缓加息或在今年内降息。在流动性预期改善的前提下,Nasdaq板块高科技股走强。在这段时间里,以比特币为首的加密市场更多表现出风险资产的属性,和高科技股相关性更强。

Trader's analysis of crypto market volatility since the bank crisis and FOMC

Since the Fed began raising interest rates since Mar. 22, from 0% to 4.75-5.00% in just one year, which has been rare as such a rapid pace of rate hikes. Before March, the rate hikes tamed the increase of inflation and negatively influenced risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, before the liquidity crisis of small and medium-sized banks, the Fed had not seen any other negative impacts on the economy. Looking back at every rate hike, it would inevitably break something, and the crisis in small and medium-sized banks this month was mainly caused by the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes.

从交易员的视角:复盘银行危机、美联储加息以来加密市场波动分析

自美联储22年3月开始加息以来,一年时间内从0利率加息至4.75%-5.00%,这样的快速加息节奏在过往也是很少见的。 在3月之前加息确实遏制了通胀的速度,并给美股、加密货币等风险资产带来较大负面冲击,然而在此次中小银行流动性危机出现之前,美联储尚未看到其他对经济的负面影响。而回看每一次加息,势必会有一定杀伤力(break something),而这个月接连爆出的中小银行的危机归根结底主要还是来自于美联储的持续加息。

Analysis on the closure of Signature Bank, the last crypto-friendly bank and its impact on market

March 12th EST, the US Treasury Department announced the closure of Signature Bank by the New York State Department of Financial Services, and customers can apply for withdrawal of their deposits on Monday. The biggest similarity between Signature Bank and the two other recently collapsed banks, Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, is that they all involve cryptocurrency business. Signature Bank, as the only bank that has been temporarily spared from a liquidity crisis caused by customer panic withdrawals, was closed by the regulators, causing a stir in the market. This article will analyze the possible reasons behind the closure of Signature Bank and its impact on the market based on the information that has been disclosed.

全美最后一家加密友好银行Signature意外被监管关闭解析以及市场影响分析

美东时间3月12日晚,美财政部宣布由纽约州金融监管局关闭Signature Bank,客户存款可在周一申请取回。这与最近其他两家倒闭的银行Silvergate Bank和Silicon Valley Bank最大相同点在于,都涉及加密市场业务。Signature Bank作为唯一暂时幸免于客户紧急挤兑导致流动性危机的银行,却遭到监管临时决定关闭,引起市场哗然。那么,究竟是什么原因导致了Signature Bank被监管叫停,对市场后续走势又是怎样,本文将会基于现已披露的信息,解析背后可能的原因与其对市场的影响。

Some facts and reasons of crypto-friendly bank Silvergate near failure and related party risk analysis

Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI), once one of the only three crypto-friendly banks in the US (the other two are Signature Bank and Metropolitan Bank), has played a significant role in the circulation of fiat and cryptocurrencies between institutions and exchanges. It has the highest proportion of crypto business and the most aggressive business development in this area. During the bull round for cryptocurrencies, Silvergate was one of the most attractive stocks in US stock market, reaching a high of $239.26 in November 2021, up from its initial public offering price of $12.75 per share in November 2019. However, in 2022, following the FTX scandal, the market speculated that Silvergate had business dealings with FTX and Alameda, causing a large number of traditional funds, including Soros Fund, to short SI, making it the most shorted stock in the US. Recently, Silvergate announced a delay in submitting its 2022 audit report to the SEC, citing significant risk to its business continuance, causing its stock price to plummet to an all-time low of $5.77. A large number of crypto-compliant institutions have stated that they will stop doing business with Silvergate. In this article, the author analyzes the reasons why SI's business is on the brink of collapse and reveals the truth behind the data by examining SI's 2021 annual report, unaudited financial data for 2022, and multiple public documents.

加密友好银行Silvergate 濒临倒闭的一些事实和原因及关联方风险分析

Silvergate Capital Corporation(SI) 作为曾经全美唯三的加密友好银行(另外两家分别是Signature Bank和Metropolitan Bank),也是加密业务体量占比最高、业务发展最为激进的银行,扮演了机构和交易所之间法币与加密货币流通的重要角色。在加密货币市场整体还处于牛市时,Silvergate也曾经是美股市场最受关注的标的之一。从2019年11月上市初的$12.75每股,一度紧随BTC走势,在21年11月最高涨至$239.26。在22年SI股价逐渐走低,FTX暴雷事件之后,市场普遍猜测Silvergate与FTX和Alameda之间的业务往来,大量的传统基金,包括索罗斯的基金,加入做空SI,使得该股票一度成为全美做空最多的股票。近期,在Silvergate发出公告延迟向SEC提交22年审计报告,并称其业务有相当大的风险不可持续经营,更使得股价快速下滑至历史新低$5.77。大量的加密合规机构纷纷表示停止与Silvergate的合作关系。笔者查阅了SI已经披露的21年年报、22年未经审计的财务数据及多份公开资料,在本文中分析了其业务濒临倒闭的原因,呈现数据背后的真相。

Yr23 Wk6:Hard Landing risk increase while hawkish remain, market shifts

Three important events in the past two weeks caused significant trend shifts in the crypto market. Those are FOMC decisions for Feb, unexpected strong employment in Jan, 2yr vs 10yr treasury yield spread inverted leading to pessimistic expectation on recession, combined with SEC enforcement in crypto, which all resulted in volatility of crypto market. Following are analyzed for each: