Iran retaliates against Israel, Trump delays military intervention for another two weeks; Short term BTC holders’ holdings have sharply decreased by 800000 in less than a month!
June 20th, 2025

Macro interpretation: Israeli intelligence agencies confirm Iran’s plan to attack Israeli targets in Europe, prompting Israel to urgently launch a plan to evacuate 100000 expatriates. The Trump administration is caught in a dilemma: although the White House claims to decide whether to intervene militarily in the Israel Iraq conflict within two weeks, Trump himself has returned to the golf course, and his core supporters are more openly opposed to getting involved in the Middle East conflict. Subtly, the cryptocurrency market has shown high sensitivity to war risks, with the White House’s statement on a “two-week decision period” triggering a short-term rise of 0.55% in Bitcoin. The uncertainty of the macro situation is the biggest obstacle for Bitcoin, and now geopolitical conflicts and macro risks are reshaping its pricing logic.The Bitcoin market is entering a profound period of silence. On chain data shows that the seven day moving average trading volume of Bitcoin has fallen to about 350000 transactions, hitting an 18 month low, in sharp contrast to the peak of 700000 transactions per day in mid-2024. This contraction is not only due to the retreat of speculative fever in Bitcoin native protocols such as Runes and Ordinals, but also reflects a structural decline in market activity. The sharp decline in transaction volume and the disappearance of competition in block space have led to average transaction fees remaining below $1.5, with some users even attempting to initiate transactions at ultra-low rates below 1 sat/vB. The “Slipstream” channel launched by mining pool MARA has sparked controversy over the censorship resistance of the Bitcoin network. Under the surface of a sluggish market, a profound restructuring of the funding structure is unfolding.It is alarming that new capital inflows are facing depletion. According to CoinAnk data, short-term holders’ Bitcoin holdings have sharply decreased by 800000 in less than a month, and demand momentum indicators have fallen to a historical low of -2 million. In response, Goldman Sachs warned that the US treasury bond is climbing to an “unsustainable” high. The US $36 trillion debt accounts for about 120% of GDP. Next year, interest expenditure will exceed US $1 trillion — more than the sum of medical insurance and defense spending. Under the shadow of the debt crisis, the safe haven nature of Bitcoin resonates subtly with fiscal difficulties. Although Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional funds (with a cumulative inflow of over $45 billion and a monthly average of $2.6 billion), the price has stagnated at the $105000 mark. According to institutional reports, the market is under implicit selling pressure, and the participation of retail investors has significantly declined. Interestingly, Giant Whale is quietly laying out its strategy. According to data monitoring on CoinAnk, the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC increased by 231 within 10 days, while retail wallets (0.001–10 BTC) sharply decreased by 37465 during the same period. This divergence is often seen as a precursor to a bull market.The deeper change lies in the transformation of the role of Bitcoin. When the trading volume on the chain returns to the basic transfer function, and institutional funds continue to flow in through ETF channels while retail investors exit, Bitcoin is accelerating its shift from a trading medium to a value storage carrier. The marginal position of gold in American family offices also to some extent constrains the penetration rate of “digital gold”. The current horizontal market pattern is just the painful period of this attribute transformation — the market needs to digest the early speculative foam while waiting for the start of the new capital cycle. The hoarding behavior of giant whales and historical patterns suggest that patient capital may receive excess returns during the liquidity tightening phase.Bitcoin is full of contradictory signals: cold on chain and whale fundraising coexist, geopolitical crisis and fiscal cliff intertwine, institutional entry and retail exit synchronize. This complex situation precisely highlights its unique value as a non sovereign asset. When traditional financial markets tremble due to debt inflation, and when the Middle East’s powder keg could ignite oil prices at any moment, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is gaining practical support. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the optimization of capital structure and the deepening of attribute transformation are laying the foundation for the next round of value discovery. For investors, the current quiet period is an important window to examine their positions and plan for the long term — after all, history has shown that when whales begin to swim, the direction of the tide is often already brewing. The market always oscillates between fear and greed, and the true anchor of value is always quietly forged in the eyes of storms. The silence of Bitcoin is precisely the touchstone of long termism.

BTC data analysis:According to the latest on chain data monitoring by CoinAnk, the Bitcoin market is experiencing significant changes in its position structure: the Bitcoin holdings of short-term holders (STH) have plummeted by 800000 in less than a month, while the demand momentum indicator has fallen to a historical extreme level of -2 million. In sharp contrast, the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC increased by 231 within 10 days against the trend, while retail wallets (0.001–10 BTC) sharply decreased by over 37000 during the same period. This phenomenon of position differentiation often indicates the restructuring of the market supply pattern in history.From the perspective of market impact, although the sharp exit of short-term holders has caused short-term selling pressure, the continuous increase in holdings of large wallets indicates that “smart funds” are accelerating their layout. On chain data shows that when short-term holders’ unrealized net profit or loss drops to freezing point, BTC prices often form a temporary bottom. Of particular note is that the current BTC reserves on the exchange are declining at a historic rate, and this liquidity contraction may trigger significant supply tightening effects. Based on the cyclical changes in the proportion of holdings held by long-term holders (LTH), the current market characteristics are highly consistent with the initial stage of bull markets in 2017 and 2021. If the trend of institutional increase in holdings continues, it may push BTC into a new round of value reassessment cycle.

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