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Macro interpretation: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may be frowning at the PCE price index in his office, while Trump's tariff threat has caused both the US stock market and Bitcoin to experience a sharp decline. When Wall Street economists decisively declared that 'there is no hope of a rate cut this year', the majority of the cryptocurrency market may be grateful for the support level of Bitcoin at $75000 to $80000, as the knee landing posture of digital gold is not elegant compared to gold's new high. The representatives of encryption companies in the US Treasury Department conference room may be holding their breath as they gaze at the closed door meeting on the 'National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Custody Scheme', which is like installing a password lock for a political safe in the encrypted world. The pressure from top Democratic officials to stop Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is like pouring ice water on this unformed safe deposit box, as the political arena races against digital assets and precious metals under the dazzling light of gold prices breaking through the historical high of $2990. Morgan Stanley's mining company rating adjustment is quite interesting, with the mysterious operation of IREN rating up but target price down, and Cipher Mining experiencing rating downgrade, which exposes the cautious attitude of institutional investors towards the arms race of computing power. Just like Texas Hold'em experts suddenly tightening their chips in the river card industry, these adjustments suggest that miners may need to prepare for a 'protracted battle' in the low gross profit era after halving. It is interesting that while the target prices of mining companies' stocks are generally lowered, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract gold. This mismatch phenomenon of "decentralized assets being popular and centralized carriers being cold" is playing out the polarization of the crypto world. The financing frenzy in the AI field has made the cryptocurrency industry pale in comparison - with a quarterly funding ratio of 20 billion to 861 million US dollars, comparable to the arena showdown between heavyweight boxers and featherweight athletes. The single financing amount of $15.3 billion from VNet is enough to buy the entire Bitcoin mining industry and have surplus funds. This siphon effect of funds found a footnote in the institutional report: when the market value of $1 trillion was evaporated due to the bursting of the memetics foam, the Pump.fun platform on the Solana chain became rich in a bear market, and the revenue of $582 million in 12 months was comparable to a money printing machine. We often say the old saying on Wall Street: 'When shoeshine boys are all talking about stocks, it's time to leave.' However, the current situation is that shoeshine boys have switched to issuing coins. Trump's 200% tariff threat is like a black swan flapping its wings, not only making EU wine merchants tremble, but also causing the cryptocurrency market to experience knee jerk fluctuations. When Bitcoin stubbornly climbed back to $81000 after the US stock market closed, on chain data revealed a cruel truth: contract trading volume rose against the trend, like gamblers doubling their bets on the table. Emotion monitoring shows that Ethereum is experiencing a crisis of trust, with its community sentiment curve comparable to a roller coaster ride, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is continuously declining without looking back. Under the seemingly silent surface of the market, whale funds are surging underground. The phenomenon of whale inflow reaching a new high in many years is like a deep-sea monster surfacing to breathe. When the network growth of PAX Gold and the whale trading of Magic Token suddenly become active, this scene reminds people of the fund manager who sensed the crisis in advance in "The Big Short". Interestingly, Dogecoin's address activity has grown the fastest, as if dancing a square dance in a bear market, while Audius' emotional indicators have skyrocketed, resembling the atmosphere group in a KTV. From a macro perspective, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing three stress tests: the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate policy is like a hanging sword, capital siphoning in the AI field forms a black hole, and geopolitical black swans frequently flap their wings. But the resilience of blockchain is always finding a way out - when Morgan Stanley reports that institutional investors are beginning to bargain hunt, when Bitcoin's computing power hits new highs, and when the Lightning Network's capacity exceeds $200 million, these positive signals are like a glimmer at the end of a tunnel. Perhaps as the encryption proverb goes, 'Bear markets are builders' paradise,' and this time, builders have two new trump cards in their hands: AI big models and RWA. This "stress test" in the encrypted world will eventually prove that when inflation monsters and AI frenzy collide, Bitcoin may not be the fastest runner, but it is likely to be the most resilient player. As for altcoins, they either undergo transformation in regulatory sandboxes or turn into spring mud in the cold winter of liquidity, after all, Darwin's theory of evolution also applies in the world of code.

Macro interpretation: Today, I saw Goldman Sachs analyze that the US stock market may continue to underperform overseas markets in the near future. This macro level anxiety is like the sword of Damocles, hanging over the entire risk asset market. It is interesting that while traditional markets are wavering on the seesaw of concerns about economic growth and inflation, cryptocurrency funds are staging a major battle, with Bitcoin's market value proportion increasing. Let's talk about it later in conjunction with the knockoff index. The steps of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are becoming increasingly confusing. The Chief Economist of BMI's observation is quite insightful: although the inflation data in March has fallen slightly, commodity prices may return due to the Trump era tariff policy, and this "inflation boomerang" effect has thrown market expectations into chaos. Russell Investments bluntly stated that the fundamentals of the US economy are as strong as a fitness coach, and there is no need to rush to cut interest rates before May or June. In this policy fog, Bitcoin seems to have found a new narrative pivot - as the pricing logic of traditional assets is challenged, the safe haven properties of digital gold are being revalued.

Macro interpretation: When US Commerce Secretary Raymondo faced the camera and insisted that "even if tariffs trigger a recession, it's worth it," the global market seemed to hear a thunderbolt. This seemingly contradictory argument actually reveals the deep game of the current economic landscape. In the collision of the Trump administration's tariff stick and Biden's policy legacy, the cryptocurrency market is quietly brewing a new breakthrough battle. It is interesting that the drama of this policy battle is comparable to the famous "pizza incident" in the crypto community, but this time the bet is on the future direction of the entire global economy. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is becoming an invisible upward trend that is driving the market. According to QCP Capital data, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 have surged from one at the beginning of the year to four, and this dramatic shift is driven by the recession scenario that futures traders are betting on with real money. The premium of two-year US Treasury call options has soared to its peak since September last year, seemingly staging a sequel to the real-life version of 'Big Short'. Tickmill analysis warns that the upcoming CPI data could become Schr ö dinger's "cat box" that ignites yields, whether inflation rises or falls, potentially causing US bond yields to suddenly "go berserk" like volatility in the cryptocurrency market. In this macro storm, Bitcoin has demonstrated astonishing resilience. LMAX Digital analysis points out that despite the price correction, the support in the $69000-74000 range is like the "Maginot Line" in the crypto world, and the technical side is quietly building a bottom. The dissipation of the "Trump premium" in the CME futures market is more enlightening: the price difference between the current month's and near month contracts shrank from a peak of $1705 to $490, and the market declared the ebb of the "presidential effect" with real gold and silver. This value return is similar to the market reaction when Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared - after the noise, fundamentals once again dominate the narrative. The faint light in the regulatory fog is also worth pondering. The SEC has postponed the approval of mainstream cryptocurrency ETFs until May, a tactic reminiscent of the long journey of Bitcoin ETFs back then. But Cathie Wood's prophecy injected a shot in the arm into the market: With the end of the Gary Gensler era, the "digital asset revolution" in Washington may be more intense than expected. This subtle shift in regulatory attitude coincides with Anselm's "golden age of builders" - when the market enters a cooling off period, it is an excellent opportunity for DeFi protocols to break through the encirclement and seize the ecological high ground. It is worth pondering that the market is staging a 'song of ice and fire'. On one hand, GBTC sold 641BTC of capital in a single day and fled, while on the other hand, institutional investors were persistent in maintaining futures premiums in the CME futures market. This divergence reflects a cognitive gap among market participants: traditional capital is still interpreting encrypted assets using old paradigms, while smart money has begun to layout the value revaluation of the post halving era. Although Wood's rhapsody about 7.3% GDP growth was questioned, the technology convergence trend revealed by Wood - the "trinity" evolution of AI, blockchain and gene technology - may be brewing a productivity leap comparable to the Internet revolution. The cryptocurrency market is undergoing the most philosophical questioning: as the traditional financial system swings on the tightrope of tariff wars and monetary policy, can Bitcoin make a thrilling leap from a risky asset to "digital gold"? The answer may be hidden in the contango structure of the CME futures curve, which suggests that the current adjustment is more about the clearing of spot leverage than a systematic collapse. Just like DeFi, which emerged after the cold winter of 2018, experienced an explosion in 2020-2021, the current market cooling may be nurturing even more disruptive innovations. In the collision between the global economy and the crypto civilization, savvy investors have started using "recession options" to hedge risks. Anselm's concept of 'the best era for builders' is essentially innovative Darwinism in the cold winter of capital - only agreements that truly create value can transcend cycles. When the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts resonates with regulatory easing, the cryptocurrency market may usher in a more epic narrative revolution than in 2017. After all, as the traditional financial system began to doubt its resilience, the anti fragility system designed by Satoshi Nakamoto was quietly waiting for its historical moment.

Macro interpretation: While Wall Street traders hold their breath waiting for the signal of the Federal Reserve's June interest rate cut, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing extreme volatility. The chain reaction triggered by the sudden change in macroeconomic expectations not only caused the S\&P 500 index to plummet by 3.2% in a single week, but also caused Bitcoin to drop sharply to $76000 after approaching $95000, gradually approaching our previously predicted 2B top decline target of $70000, staging the most thrilling "roller coaster" market of the year. The formation of this perfect storm is like the convergence of three forces: the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the "powder keg effect" of Trump's economic policy, and the liquidity restructuring of the cryptocurrency market itself. The current futures market has woven a dramatic script for the Federal Reserve - although the March meeting remains unchanged, traders are betting with almost artistic imagination on three consecutive interest rate cuts in June, July, and October. This expectation contrasts sharply with the hawkish statements of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's unfinished inflation battle, exposing a deep contradiction in market logic: when CME interest rate futures showed a 78% probability of a rate cut in June, Goldman Sachs lowered its US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% and raised its inflation forecast. This interest rate cut bet under the shadow of stagflation is essentially a panic hedge against an economic hard landing. As warned by Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, a 35% probability of recession combined with Trump's tariff 2.0 policy could lead to a repeat of the 1987 style flash crash, bringing "pre storm calm" to the cryptocurrency market. The "powder keg effect" of Trump's policies is reshaping the global capital flow map. The former president's recent shocking remarks about "making the Wall Street crash more favorable for negotiations" are like throwing a cognitive nuclear bomb at the financial market. Data shows that within two months of taking office, the market value of the cryptocurrency market evaporated by $912 billion, a decline of 25.18%, while the holdings of the seven major technology stock institutions in the US stock market also dropped to a 22 month freezing point. More strategically, the Trump administration's policy shift in support of the stablecoin is triggering the European Central Bank's defense mechanism - as the chairman of the Eurogroup warns that "this could shake the currency sovereignty of the eurozone," digital assets have quietly become a new battlefield in the great power game. The escalation of this geopolitical financial game presents an opportunity for a reevaluation of the value of Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. The cryptocurrency market is undergoing an unprecedented liquidity restructuring internally. According to Coinank data, while BTC has fallen to a recent low of $76600 and is gradually approaching our previously predicted 2B top decline target of $70000, there has been a spectacular net outflow of over 2800 BTC from CEX in the past 24 hours. Among them, the huge outflow of 8533 BTC from Coinbase Pro single platform indicates that the main players are frantically hoarding and holding coins to sell. This phenomenon of exchange migration coincides with the monitoring of a six-month low in the inflow rate of stablecoins on the chain, indicating that the market is undergoing a paradigm shift from "leverage frenzy" to "holding and watching". It is interesting that today's 4% general rise in US cryptocurrency concept stocks has formed a subtle divergence, exposing the cognitive time difference between traditional capital and on chain funds - while BlackRock IBIT continues to attract funds, on chain whales have begun to transfer ammunition to cold wallets. At this point in time, the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL) has climbed to an annual high of 87, which is both a pricing measure for macro uncertainty and a stress test for market resilience. Historical experience shows that when the Federal Reserve initiates a rate cut cycle, cryptocurrency assets often exhibit a deep V trend of first suppressing and then rising. But the uniqueness of this cycle lies in the fact that the cryptocurrency market is facing multiple tests of geopolitical games, regulatory framework restructuring, and deep involvement of traditional institutions for the first time at the level of $10 trillion. As the General Manager of the European Stability Mechanism has stated, the butterfly effect in the digital asset market has the potential to trigger a hurricane in the sovereign monetary system. In this uncertain spring, Bitcoin may be experiencing its last coming of age ceremony before becoming a mainstream asset - only by crossing this perfect storm can it truly complete its identity transformation from a rebellious kid to a financial nouveau riche.

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Macro interpretation: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order signed by Trump today is like throwing a dumb nuclear bomb into the cryptocurrency market. Why do I say this? Because the Bitcoin reserves that have been hyped up for years since the second half of last year are actually different from what most people expected. There are so many news reports about Trump signing the executive order on encrypted reserves, but this one is the most important: the government will not acquire any assets for reserve assets other than those obtained through confiscation procedures. I joked with my friends that, to put it simply, what was seized and confiscated in the past is considered a reserve, and they won't spend an extra penny to buy it. This is prepared to be stingy and empty handed to trap a white wolf. The Fox report is similar to my interpretation a few days ago. If taxpayers' money is used to buy it, congressional approval is required, which is almost impossible to achieve. So, the ultimate result is that there won't be much change, we won't spend money to buy, and we'll use the confiscated assets as reserves. This policy, referred to as the "digital age gold standard experiment" by crypto czar David Sacks, appears to only involve the management of confiscated assets, but in reality harbors ambitions to reshape the global monetary landscape. When the basement of the Ministry of Finance building began counting the "spoils" of Bitcoin, the crypto world was undergoing a test - in the short term, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated repeatedly at the $88000 mark, neither breaking through the psychological barrier of $90000 nor falling below the support level of $84000. The market was searching for a new balance point in the policy fog. The "surgical knife style" design of the executive order is exquisite: it not only avoids the moral hazard of using taxpayer funds, but also cleverly builds a framework for national digital asset reserves. According to policy guidelines, the Ministry of Finance will not only take over 174000 bitcoins confiscated in the Silk Road case, but also reserve operational space to convert civil fines into digital reserves. This "war for war" model allows the US government to act as both a referee and an athlete, accumulating strategic assets while combating crime. As the strategy director of 21Shares stated, this is equivalent to establishing a "fiat harvester" in the crypto world - every regulatory blow can add ammunition to digital vaults. The immediate response of the market to this is full of black humor. Bitcoin fell 4.2% in response, exposing investors' disappointment with the "store old, not buy new" policy. This reserve strategy of "wanting the horse to run while the horse doesn't eat grass" has left speculators who were expecting the government to buy heavily empty handed. The overnight cryptocurrency market and the US stock market formed a "miserable" duo, with Nasdaq's 2.61% decline resonating with the general decline of altcoins. This linkage confirms the judgment of grayscale research: the safe haven attribute of Bitcoin still needs time to settle, and it is still a "follower" of risky assets at present. The long tail effect of policies is surging in the dark. Among the nine transformative scenarios depicted by Bitwise research, 'central banks of various countries are forced to follow suit' is the most disruptive. When the United States includes Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, it is equivalent to installing a cryptocurrency engine into the global monetary system. Countries with thin foreign exchange reserves may view Bitcoin as "Digital Gold 2.0". Senator Cynthia Lummis' suggestion that 'this is just the beginning' has further alerted the market to the continued escalation of policies. This "boiling frog in warm water" regulatory evolution may be more lethal than direct legislation. In this battle between national strategy and market competition, policies have neither taken bold and decisive actions to rescue the market nor allowed regulatory vacuum to continue. Instead, they have precisely removed policy tumors that hinder industry development. When institutions are required to submit Bitcoin transfer permission reports within 30 days, the dark web black market may suffer from collective insomnia - this means that the US government will establish the world's most powerful on chain surveillance network. The dual countdown of non farm data and encryption summit injects new variables into the market. The combination of "employment winter meets wage inflation" warned by Ruixun Bank's analysis may force the Federal Reserve to "tango" on the road to interest rate cuts. The uncertainty of this monetary policy is precisely in line with the regulatory signals that may be released by the White House Crypto Summit. Smart funds have begun to lay out - some institutional investors are seeing Bitcoin as a "Noah's Ark" against tariff inflation, as Trump's tariff stick may overshadow traditional safe haven assets. The 'Dunkirk evacuation' of the crypto world is unfolding: short-term pains are inevitable, but the establishment of a strategic reserve system is essentially a national credit endorsement for digital assets. When one day in the future, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will feature a Bitcoin account, and central banks around the world will begin discussing the proportion of "encrypted reserve currencies," people may recall this spring of 2025- when the US government quietly toppled the first domino of the traditional financial system with an executive order. This quiet revolution is rewriting the millennium narrative of value storage.

Macro interpretation: The BTC price is currently fluctuating around $91000, and the market is experiencing multiple resonances at a historic moment. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's recent warning about the difficulty of central bank inflation control is a subtle hedge against the Trump administration's subtle move to postpone car tariffs. The former suggests that global monetary policy may be hawkish in the long run, while the latter injects a stimulant into risky assets by easing trade frictions. However, the market has already started to increase the probability of a US dollar interest rate cut in anticipation of ADP employment data hitting an eight month low. This seemingly contradictory scenario is the best footnote to understanding the current cryptocurrency market ecology. This policy level controversy has set up a tense stage for the cryptocurrency market, and the upcoming White House Crypto Summit on March 7th will determine the ultimate direction of this capital drama. From the observation of data on the Coinank chain, the spectacular scene of CEX net outflow of 11734 BTC in the past week, with a total outflow of over 17500 Bitcoin from several top platforms, coupled with the lightning operation of multiple whale addresses extracting 6930 ETH in a single day, often indicates two possibilities for this large-scale asset migration: either institutional players are accumulating strength in the spot market, or smart money is laying the groundwork for the layout of the derivatives market. Interestingly, these two speculations are also reflected in the options market, with BTC options worth $2.36 billion and ETH options worth $490 million set to be delivered on March 7th, with the biggest pain points pointing to key psychological levels of $89000 and $2300, respectively. On the technical side, Bitcoin has walked out of the hammer line with an amplitude of over 15% for two consecutive weeks. This signal, which appeared in the bull market in 2017, is like the steady drum sounded by Mr. Market on the candlestick chart. Market analysis suggests that the "spring compression" effect formed by the current price range of $81000 to $94000 is remarkably similar to the volatility structure during the Silicon Valley banking crisis. However, history will not simply repeat itself. Against the backdrop of the US dollar index falling to a four month low, funds are shifting away from traditional markets - the daily gains of over 3% in technology stocks such as Microsoft are linked to the rebound in the cryptocurrency market. The butterfly effect of policy expectations has caused a storm in the options market. Data shows that the probability of the market expecting Bitcoin to reach $100000 by the end of June is 48.64%, while by the end of March it is only about 30%. This figure is a quantitative expression of the policy dividends that the White House Crypto Summit may release in options contracts. As the Trump administration releases tariff flexibility, the cryptocurrency industry is more concerned about whether rumors of its team's "Bitcoin strategic reserve" will be confirmed at the summit. This policy game not only needs to guard against the tightening risks brought by Bernanke's warning of a "second inflation rebound", but also needs to grasp the institutional dividends brought by regulatory ice breaking. The strategies of market participants present interesting distinctions. Top traders compare the current price range to a "quantum superposition state" and choose to conduct field tests and wait for the opportunity to return to the mean. And the whales on the chain are playing a new game of "staking arbitrage" through DeFi protocols such as Morpho and AAVE. The massive operation of 16000 ETH in a single day by a mysterious address reminds me of the saying on Wall Street, "When sharks start swimming, little fish should learn to surf. This institutional level operation forms a cruel contrast with the "thousand cuts and ten thousand losses" of individual investors, but also confirms the increasingly significant institutional characteristics of the cryptocurrency market. The policy direction of the White House Crypto Summit on March 7th may determine the final direction of this round of market trend, whether it will repeat the frenzied bull market of 2017 or the last carnival before the peak of 2021? The answer may lie in the subtle changes in the Gamma value of the Greek letter in the options market, which are revealing market makers' vigilance against volatility bursts. The only certainty is that in this era where credit cracks in fiat currency are gradually emerging, Bitcoin is making a thrilling leap from "digital gold" to "sovereign asset replacement", and every pulse of the global capital market is writing a new chapter for this crypto fantasy.

Trump's congressional speech did not mention BTC, market focuses on this week's non farm payroll and White House crypto summit