Macro interpretation: The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark today, hitting a new low since March 2022. Behind the continuous weakness of the US dollar is the strong appreciation of major currencies such as the Chinese yuan - both onshore and offshore Chinese yuan exchange rates have risen above the 7.16 mark, reaching a new high in nearly seven months. The profound changes in this currency landscape have prompted global capital to accelerate the search for non dollar denominated value storage methods, and the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin has therefore received some attention. The uncertainty of geopolitical and economic policies further reinforces this trend. In terms of the situation in the Middle East, the US Senate urgently adjusted the schedule of the confidential briefing on the Iran issue, and the dissatisfaction of the two parties with the government communication mechanism highlighted the escalating geopolitical risks. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's policy is in a delicate situation: if interest rate cuts continue to be suspended in July, it may intensify Trump's intention to replace the Fed chairman. The expectation of challenging the authority of this policy will further weaken the credit of the US dollar and drive safe haven funds to migrate towards decentralized assets. Multiple key signals of Bitcoin indicate that a new explosive market is about to begin. On the technical chart, the classic bull market flag shape has quietly formed - this is a brief consolidation stage that Bitcoin enters after experiencing a rapid rise in the early stage, usually indicating the accumulation of power for a new offensive. Currently, Bitcoin needs to effectively break through resistance levels to confirm its form validity. Once successful, the medium-term price is expected to reach a higher level. The core force supporting this technology expectation comes from the continuous layout of on chain capital. Historical data reveals a key pattern: large-scale fundraising by long-term holders (LTH) is often a precursor signal to Bitcoin's explosive market. At the two key milestones of $28000 and $60000, the significant increase in LTH holdings ultimately catalyzed price breakthroughs towards $60000 and $100000, respectively. At the current level of $100000, the LTH/STH position ratio is showing a growing trend again. If we refer to the accumulation pattern of about 4-8 weeks in the first two cycles and calculate with a conservative increase of 1.6 times, the next target for Bitcoin is also worth looking forward to. At the institutional level, although some executives of Strategy have recently cashed out about $40 million worth of stocks at high points, founder Michael Saylor's 19.6 million shares of Class B stocks remain steadfast. The differentiation between internal selling and founder persistence reflects both the market's need for periodic profit taking and the firm confidence of core capital in the long-term value of Bitcoin. The evolution of the liquidity pattern of the exchange also confirms the increase in market activity. The latest data shows that Binance maintains a leading liquidity depth of approximately $8 million within the Bitcoin ± $100 price range, followed closely by Bitget and OKX. In the fields of Ethereum and altcoins, the former exhibits liquidity within a fine spread range. The improvement of this infrastructure provides a solid guarantee for large-scale capital inflows and outflows. The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has added theoretical footnotes. The institution pointed out that stablecoins have not met the three key tests of singularity, elasticity, and integrity, and have not yet become a pillar of the monetary system. This authoritative statement indirectly confirms the unique value of unstable encrypted assets such as Bitcoin - against the backdrop of significant flaws in both traditional financial systems and emerging stablecoins, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and decentralized characteristics, is becoming an important safe haven for global capital. Overall, the breakthrough of technological forms, the firm attraction of long-term capital, the weakening of US dollar credit, and the upgrading of geopolitical risks, together constitute the "golden triangle" of Bitcoin's historical high impact. When the triple signals of the bull market flag confirming a breakthrough, long-term holders completing their position accumulation, and the continued pressure on the US dollar index are superimposed, the path of Bitcoin's progress will become exceptionally clear. This new chapter of the bull market, driven by technology, capital, and macro factors, has already begun.

Macro interpretation: Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated his cautious stance on interest rate cuts at a congressional hearing, clearly rejecting political pressure and implying that there is no hope of a rate cut in July. The market expects the first rate cut to be postponed until December, with a magnitude of only 25 basis points. This stance reinforces the short-term strength of the US dollar and suppresses risk asset appetite. However, Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that the Federal Reserve will initiate seven interest rate cuts in 2026, with the final rate dropping to 2.5% -2.75%. This long-term easing signal injects potential momentum into cryptocurrency assets. In terms of US dollar policy, the United States is tokenizing US bonds through stablecoins, aiming to maintain its global dominance. Specifically, the United States encourages the issuance of stablecoins based on US Treasury bonds to attract cryptocurrency capital to "take over" US Treasury bonds, which is both a response to the weakening of the SWIFT system and a promotion of stablecoin compliance. For example, Coinbase recently obtained authorization from MiCA in Luxembourg, becoming the first compliant US exchange, while the US GENIUS Act established a stablecoin framework, demonstrating a trend towards regulatory convergence. The EU, on the other hand, ignored the warning from the European Central Bank and pushed for its own stablecoin rules, which could lead to market fragmentation and benefit decentralized stablecoin projects. Overall, policy games have intensified the short-term pressure of tightening US dollar liquidity, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and tokenization trend provide BTC with inflation hedging properties, which may attract safe haven capital inflows in the medium to long term. At the market dynamics level, derivative activities and cash flow indicators are amplifying short-term fluctuations. Deribit Exchange will have over $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring this Friday, accounting for more than 40% of open contracts, with call options being the majority and the put/call ratio rising to 0.72. Market analysis shows that near the maximum pain point of $102000, traders generally sell straddle options with high implied volatility, indicating intensified price volatility before expiration. This is in line with the global money supply indicator that the market is concerned about: this indicator has previously captured Bitcoin's pullback signal in advance, and the current market sentiment is highly sensitive to it. The next week is the key to verifying its effectiveness, and if the indicators show an improvement in liquidity, it may trigger buying momentum. Recent institutional behavior has confirmed market resilience: ProCap Fund increased its holdings of $386 million in BTC, with corporate holdings reaching 3.45 million coins. Coinbase's stock price soared to a six-month high due to favorable regulatory conditions. Based on online information, the current BTC price is consolidating around $65000, and options events and funding indicators may exacerbate short-term volatility. However, institutional holdings provide support for the bottom, and investors can pay attention to price difference strategies. Geopolitical risks unexpectedly disrupt the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network. On June 22, the United States carried out airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, including Fordow and Natanz's power infrastructure, causing a sharp drop in Iran's Bitcoin computing power. Iran accounts for approximately 3.1% of the global mining market share, with cheap electricity being its advantage. However, attacks have caused power outages and network disruptions, leading to widespread shutdowns of mining machines. Although not intentionally targeting mining, this is a collateral effect of the conflict, highlighting the vulnerability of the Bitcoin network to geopolitical events. The decline in computing power may weaken network security in the short term and affect transaction confirmation speed, but history shows that computing power has recovered rapidly, and events have driven up the stock prices of mining companies such as Riot Platforms and Hut 8, indicating market recognition of decentralized resistance. Considering the rebound in risk appetite after the Middle East ceasefire (such as the Nasdaq hitting a new high), geopolitical disturbances may be a short-term buying point, but investors need to monitor the risk of subsequent conflict escalation. In terms of market performance, there is a clear differentiation of cryptocurrency assets, and institutional led narratives are reshaping the landscape. US cryptocurrency concept stocks saw impressive gains in June: Circle surged 618% after going public, Coinbase rose 39.82%, mining companies Riot and Hut 8 rose 24.16% and 12.9% respectively, and treasury company SRM Entertainment surged 1273% due to the reverse merger of TRON. During the same period, the total market value of altcoins (excluding BTC) rose from $1.231 trillion to $1.304 trillion, an increase of 5.93%, but lagged behind US cryptocurrency stocks, indicating that funds prefer compliant targets. This trend is consistent with the views of European analysts: after the ceasefire in the Middle East, investors tend to turn to technology stocks (such as Magnificent 7), and Coinbase's regulatory breakthrough and institutional increase in BTC highlight the linkage between the cryptocurrency and AI/technology sectors. Overall, the rise of cryptocurrency stocks and the rebound of altcoins reflect the repair of market risk appetite, but BTC has benefited from institutional holdings and performed relatively more steadily. On the impact level, policy delays and geopolitical events may suppress short-term gains, but the trend towards tokenization and institutional entry provide BTC with a "digital gold" attribute. In the medium to long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, BTC may break through its previous highs, and the warning of computing power events requires strengthening network decentralization. Investors should focus on compliant platforms and BTC spot ETF inflows, avoiding high volatility altcoins. The cryptocurrency market in mid-2025 will reach a turning point amidst policy, geopolitical, and capital waves. BTC is under short-term pressure from delayed interest rate cuts and disruptions in computing power, but institutional holdings and improved regulatory frameworks have built a solid bottom, and it is expected to lead the way in the tokenization trend in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to balance their positions, prioritize BTC and compliant targets, while monitoring currency indicators and option market signals. The real test of the cryptocurrency market in the coming year will be whether it can transform volatility into sustainable growth.

Macro interpretation: US President Trump confirms that Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire, despite mutual accusations of violations, the substantive conflict has not escalated. This situation far exceeds market expectations, driving a rapid rebound in global risk appetite. The Tel Aviv Index in Israel rose 1.4%, while the Saudi Arabia and Dubai indices rose over 2%, and European stocks generally rose. For the cryptocurrency market, the decline in geopolitical safe haven demand coincides with technical support - Bitcoin received strong buying at the $99000 level, and on chain data showed that long-term holders took the opportunity to increase their holdings, while short-term speculative trading gradually exited. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional hearing this week can be called the 'toughest test in a decade'. Trump publicly pressured on social media, accusing Powell of refusing to cut interest rates, causing the United States to miss out on $800 billion in gains, and suggesting that Europe has already cut interest rates 10 times. Strangely, there has also been a key split within the Federal Reserve: Trump appointed governors Bauman and Waller publicly support the July rate cut, and both are seen as potential successors to Powell after his term expires in 2026. According to CME data, the market's pricing for the probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 20.7%, and the latest statement by Federal Reserve official Goolsby that "if the impact of trade policy disappears, we should continue to cut interest rates" further strengthens dovish expectations. When the market focuses on the game of interest rate cuts, a deeper transformation is taking place. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced a study to include cryptocurrency holdings in the eligibility review for mortgage loans. The agency oversees trillion dollar housing finance giants such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Symbolically, FHFA Director Pruitt himself holds $500000 to $1 million worth of Bitcoin and Solana. If this move is implemented, it means that cryptocurrency will deeply intervene in the US housing credit system for the first time, opening up imaginative space for DeFi collateral applications. At the same time, stablecoin issuer Circle's valuation has exceeded $60 billion, almost equivalent to its circulating $61.2 billion USDC. This marks the acceleration of capital flow towards the cryptocurrency infrastructure layer - compared to the $78.3 billion market value of trading platform Coinbase, the market is giving pure stablecoin issuers a valuation premium for the first time. Combining the advancement of the GENIUS stablecoin bill in the United States with the implementation of the MiCA framework in the European Union, the compliance process is reshaping the valuation logic of the industry. The short-term momentum and long-term narrative of BTC, as well as the driving logic presented by the current cryptocurrency market, include liquidity expectations, an increase in the probability of Fed interest rate cuts directly lowering the US dollar index, a decrease in discount rates in risk asset valuation models, and support for deflationary assets such as BTC; There is also traditional market integration, from mortgage loan qualification assessment to financial institution balance sheet allocation, and the increase in penetration rate of encrypted assets brings incremental funds; And capital is gathering towards stablecoins, custody, and settlement layers, consolidating the market foundation while reducing systemic risks. Technically, Bitcoin has effectively broken through the key resistance of $105000. If it stabilizes at this level, the next target may point to the pressure zone of $110000-115000. But we need to be wary of the risk of short-term geopolitical fluctuations and the gap between the Federal Reserve's expectations - if Powell releases hawkish signals during congressional hearings, it may trigger profit taking. When Bitcoin emerges from its safe haven asset label, when stablecoin valuations are on par with first tier exchanges, and when mortgage lending institutions begin to evaluate your crypto holdings - the boundary between the traditional financial system and the crypto ecosystem is dissolving. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are no longer just a choice of interest rate tools, but also a pivot for the cryptocurrency market to compete with traditional capital. On this pivot, the outline of a new era of encryption driven by infrastructure and supported by compliance is gradually becoming clearer.

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Macro interpretation: Israeli intelligence agencies confirm Iran’s plan to attack Israeli targets in Europe, prompting Israel to urgently launch a plan to evacuate 100000 expatriates. The Trump administration is caught in a dilemma: although the White House claims to decide whether to intervene militarily in the Israel Iraq conflict within two weeks, Trump himself has returned to the golf course, and his core supporters are more openly opposed to getting involved in the Middle East conflict. Subtly, the cryptocurrency market has shown high sensitivity to war risks, with the White House’s statement on a “two-week decision period” triggering a short-term rise of 0.55% in Bitcoin. The uncertainty of the macro situation is the biggest obstacle for Bitcoin, and now geopolitical conflicts and macro risks are reshaping its pricing logic.The Bitcoin market is entering a profound period of silence. On chain data shows that the seven day moving average trading volume of Bitcoin has fallen to about 350000 transactions, hitting an 18 month low, in sharp contrast to the peak of 700000 transactions per day in mid-2024. This contraction is not only due to the retreat of speculative fever in Bitcoin native protocols such as Runes and Ordinals, but also reflects a structural decline in market activity. The sharp decline in transaction volume and the disappearance of competition in block space have led to average transaction fees remaining below $1.5, with some users even attempting to initiate transactions at ultra-low rates below 1 sat/vB. The “Slipstream” channel launched by mining pool MARA has sparked controversy over the censorship resistance of the Bitcoin network. Under the surface of a sluggish market, a profound restructuring of the funding structure is unfolding.It is alarming that new capital inflows are facing depletion. According to CoinAnk data, short-term holders’ Bitcoin holdings have sharply decreased by 800000 in less than a month, and demand momentum indicators have fallen to a historical low of -2 million. In response, Goldman Sachs warned that the US treasury bond is climbing to an “unsustainable” high. The US $36 trillion debt accounts for about 120% of GDP. Next year, interest expenditure will exceed US $1 trillion — more than the sum of medical insurance and defense spending. Under the shadow of the debt crisis, the safe haven nature of Bitcoin resonates subtly with fiscal difficulties. Although Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional funds (with a cumulative inflow of over $45 billion and a monthly average of $2.6 billion), the price has stagnated at the $105000 mark. According to institutional reports, the market is under implicit selling pressure, and the participation of retail investors has significantly declined. Interestingly, Giant Whale is quietly laying out its strategy. According to data monitoring on CoinAnk, the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC increased by 231 within 10 days, while retail wallets (0.001–10 BTC) sharply decreased by 37465 during the same period. This divergence is often seen as a precursor to a bull market.The deeper change lies in the transformation of the role of Bitcoin. When the trading volume on the chain returns to the basic transfer function, and institutional funds continue to flow in through ETF channels while retail investors exit, Bitcoin is accelerating its shift from a trading medium to a value storage carrier. The marginal position of gold in American family offices also to some extent constrains the penetration rate of “digital gold”. The current horizontal market pattern is just the painful period of this attribute transformation — the market needs to digest the early speculative foam while waiting for the start of the new capital cycle. The hoarding behavior of giant whales and historical patterns suggest that patient capital may receive excess returns during the liquidity tightening phase.Bitcoin is full of contradictory signals: cold on chain and whale fundraising coexist, geopolitical crisis and fiscal cliff intertwine, institutional entry and retail exit synchronize. This complex situation precisely highlights its unique value as a non sovereign asset. When traditional financial markets tremble due to debt inflation, and when the Middle East’s powder keg could ignite oil prices at any moment, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is gaining practical support. Although short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the optimization of capital structure and the deepening of attribute transformation are laying the foundation for the next round of value discovery. For investors, the current quiet period is an important window to examine their positions and plan for the long term — after all, history has shown that when whales begin to swim, the direction of the tide is often already brewing. The market always oscillates between fear and greed, and the true anchor of value is always quietly forged in the eyes of storms. The silence of Bitcoin is precisely the touchstone of long termism.

Macro interpretation: The dust of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of this morning has settled, and the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged. Although the dot matrix maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year, internal opposition has increased and differences have become more open. Chairman Powell made it clear that interest rate cuts need to be based on a sustained decline in inflation. This "data-driven" hawkish tendency instantly extinguished the market's enthusiasm for the July rate cut, and the expected probability plummeted to around 10%. The policy balance swings between economic growth and inflation control, with uncertainty permeating and risk assets under pressure. The postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window and the widening of internal cracks undoubtedly cast a shadow over the short-term liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, making volatility management an urgent task. But historical patterns indicate that once the interest rate cut cycle is established, the massive liquidity released by the low interest rate environment will eventually benefit high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, and its ability to resist the dilution of the US dollar's purchasing power still has long-term appeal. In terms of short-term market performance, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly around $105000, while mainstream currencies such as ETH and SOL have generally experienced slight declines, with MEME experiencing a more significant decline. The market trading volume has synchronously shrunk, and investors' risk aversion has significantly increased under the dual pressure of the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East (rumors that the United States may intervene in the Iran Israel conflict), with a significant decline in risk appetite. However, on chain data reveals a deeper resilience code in the market. The latest report from Fidelity Digital Assets reveals a key trend that "10-year Bitcoin", which refers to Bitcoin that has not moved for at least ten years, is accumulating at an astonishing rate. Since April this year, an average of 566 BTC have joined this "ultra long term holding" camp every day, which even exceeds the circulating supply of miners adding about 450 BTC per day. At present, the total number of bitcoins sleeping for more than a decade has exceeded 3.4 million, accounting for more than 17% of BTC's total mining output. Fidelity estimates that, with the continuous decline of new currency output after halving, the proportion of such "fossil" bitcoins will exceed 20% by 2030. More interestingly, CoinAnk data shows that the willingness of both whales and individual investors to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges has dropped to a cyclical low. The silence and reluctance of coin holders in the face of market turbulence have built a strong downward support. At the same time, a revolution about the future of monetary form is quietly gaining endorsement within the system. US Treasury Secretary Vincent publicly expressed a shocking view: Cryptocurrencies not only do not threaten the hegemony of the US dollar, but stablecoins may become a new tool to consolidate their global dominance. Frankly speaking, digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in the world today, criticizing past governments for neglecting them, and emphasizing that this administration will make every effort to promote the United States as a center for digital asset innovation. This stance echoes Trump's recent high-profile call for the House of Representatives to pass the GENIUS Act as soon as possible. The shift in political direction has ignited market enthusiasm: the US cryptocurrency sector is experiencing turbulence, with stablecoin giant Circle's stock price soaring 33.8% and Coinbase's rising 16%. Analysts from Bernstein and Barclays, Wall Street institutions, agreed that if the bill were to be implemented at the end of the summer, the stable currency would jump from a crypto ecological payment tool to a "monetary track of the Internet", opening up explosive revenue growth space for core infrastructure companies such as Circle and Coinbase. On one hand, the uncertainty of macro policies suppresses risk appetite in the current market, while on the other hand, on chain data shows astonishing holding power and long-term beliefs - millions of bitcoins have fallen silent in the long river of time, and chip lock-in continues to increase. And regulatory breakthroughs, especially the legalization and institutionalization of stablecoins represented by the GENIUS Act, have injected structural benefits into the industry. It not only has the potential to reshape the global payment landscape and consolidate the digital era hegemony of the US dollar, but also introduces the vast incremental funds and compliance development framework of the traditional financial world into the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, despite being constrained by the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" attitude and geopolitical waves in the short term, the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, are still driven by two core engines: the deterministic trend of global liquidity cycle shifting towards loose liquidity, and the industry infrastructure leap and mainstream acceptance leap brought about by the implementation of stablecoin regulation. Investors need to maintain strategic composure amidst volatility, as time will eventually prove. Silent coin holding and regulatory breakthroughs are quietly laying the foundation for the next round of value reassessment.

Macro interpretation: The historic passage of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate marks a crucial step towards federal regulation of stablecoins. This bill, pushed by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, establishes a national regulatory framework for the chaotic stablecoin market for the first time. Although the bill still needs to be coordinated with the House version of the Stablecoins Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Act, it has already sent a positive signal to the market that the regulatory framework is gradually taking shape. As the core link between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, the compliance process of stablecoins will significantly lower the threshold for mainstream capital entry. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting tonight to discuss easing the requirements for the supplementary leverage ratio of large banks, which may exempt treasury bond bonds and other safe assets, and release the liquidity of banks participating in the treasury bond market. If the policy is implemented, coupled with the current market expectation that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year will reach 85.5%, the expectation of loose US dollar liquidity will continue to rise. This macro background subtly echoes Zhou Xiaochuan's warning at the Lujiazui Forum today: global monetary policy coordination is still in a "three no states" (no institutions, no tools, no consensus), and the spillover effects of reserve currency countries' policies are increasingly prominent. The potential shift of the Federal Reserve is like throwing a stone into the global capital pool, with ripples spreading to the risk asset sector. On chain data is revealing the resilient nature of Bitcoin's bull market. Market analysis reveals that the current selling behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is approaching historical lows, and this typical "reluctance to sell" state often corresponds to a market accumulation period. Historical experience shows that after the occurrence of similar signals in the past four times, Bitcoin has risen by 18% -25% in 6-8 weeks. More importantly, the potential for changes in holding days and on chain indicators such as MVRV Z-score (current value close to neutral) have synchronously verified the accumulation of upward momentum. This phenomenon of "old hands holding their positions" resonates with technical signals - although the predictive power of global liquidity models for BTC trends has weakened, Bitcoin's performance of sticking to the support range of $105000-110000 still conforms to its predicted 13 week oscillation rhythm. If this technology structure is stable, it is not impossible to hit $140000 in late summer. However, beneath the prosperity lies structural challenges. The mining community is experiencing "pain after halving": data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin transaction fees in June has fallen below 1%, hitting a new low since 2022. Despite the block reward value remaining at a high of $327000 due to the rise in coin prices, Compass Mining pointed out that the overall industry revenue is still close to historical lows. The paradox of "high coin price, low income" is rooted in insufficient online activity (with an average transaction fee of only $1.45) and intense competition for computing power. The harsh reality forces mining sites to accelerate technological iteration - only enterprises with efficient mining machines and low electricity can weather the cycle, and industry reshuffling is inevitable. Institutional dynamics reflect the strategic adjustment of capital. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest sold off for two consecutive days, cashing out nearly $100 million, as Circle's stock price hit a new high. This is in stark contrast to investing $373 million to build a position on the first day of Circle's listing. Although this operation has raised doubts in the market about stablecoin concept stocks, it essentially reflects the profit taking of institutions after the regulatory framework becomes clear, rather than a bearish view on the industry. The underlying logic is that the advancement of the GENIUS Act has reduced policy uncertainty, and early investors' choice to settle for safety is also in line with the laws of capital operation. Regulatory ice breaking opens the institutional ceiling, accumulation on the chain indicates upward momentum, and expectations of loose liquidity provide macro fuel. Despite the short-term difficulties in the mining industry and fluctuations caused by institutional portfolio adjustments, the core logic of the market remains unchanged - the global demand for non sovereign value storage is still expanding. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window approaches and the regulatory path for stablecoins becomes clearer, coupled with the fermentation of the on chain accumulation cycle, Bitcoin is likely to usher in a new round of value discovery after volatile consolidation. Investors need to pay attention not only to price fluctuations, but also to the efficiency of mining clearance, the speed of regulatory implementation, and the turning point of US dollar liquidity. These three variables will jointly draw a roadmap for Bitcoin to hit a new high.

Macro interpretation: Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey reveals that investors have a net undervaluation ratio of 31% against the US dollar, setting the most extreme bearish record in 20 years. This signal resonates with research by the World Gold Council - over 70% of central banks expect the proportion of the US dollar in global reserves to continue to decline over the next five years. If the timeline is extended, the position of the US dollar as the global core reserve currency is facing systemic challenges, and this trend is creating historic opportunities for cryptocurrency.The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has always been a market barometer, but the current environment highlights its decision-making dilemma. The Federal Reserve Messenger pointed out that if it weren't for the inflation concerns brought about by the Trump administration's tariff policies, interest rate cuts would have been on the agenda. The analysis by the German Central Cooperative Bank further confirms that despite strong economic data, price pressure has not dissipated, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% -4.50% and wait and see. This policy deadlock has exacerbated expectations of a contraction in US dollar liquidity, prompting funds to accelerate their search for alternative assets.Geopolitics has become the biggest gray rhino in the market. Although Israel's strike on Iran's nuclear facilities caused short-term damage, the assessment by US intelligence agencies shows that Iran's nuclear weapons development process has only regressed by a few months, and the Fordo uranium enrichment base still maintains operational capabilities. What is even more alarming is that the Trump administration's attempt to "completely resolve the Iranian nuclear issue" may escalate tensions in the Middle East. Historical experience has shown that geopolitical crises often drive capital towards anti inflation assets, while the performance of Bitcoin and gold may diverge, and the later linkage may strengthen.The Bitcoin ETF has become the core carrier of this round of fund migration. According to CoinAnk data, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the past eight weeks reached $11.2 billion, but the price of the currency only rose moderately by 10%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon actually hides a mystery: stable institutional buying is building price bottom support, while limited short-term gains reflect the market's tactical operation of "selling at high prices". It is worth noting that although traditional buyers such as Strategy have slowed down their pace of increasing holdings, the resilience of ETF's continued net inflows indicates that Bitcoin is shifting from a peripheral speculative commodity to a mainstream allocation asset.The evolution of the underlying network of Bitcoin also affects market logic. Institutional reports warn that the cost of Bitcoin mining is expected to exceed $70000 in Q2 2025, a jump of 9.4% from $64000 in Q1. This cost surge is mainly driven by two factors: the intense global competition for computing power, which has pushed network hash rates to new highs, and the sustained rise in energy prices - the energy expenditure of leading mining company Terawulf has doubled year-on-year. The historic increase in mining costs means that the valuation bottom of Bitcoin will be restructured, and $70000 may become a key psychological defense line for the new cycle.The current cryptocurrency market presents a triple contradiction unity: 1 The weakening of US dollar credit and the institutionalization of Bitcoin form a hedging logic; 2. The soaring mining costs have forced a reassessment of value, but short-term fluctuations have suppressed price discovery; 3. Geopolitical black swan breeds a demand for safe haven, but is constrained by regulatory uncertainty.In this complex ecosystem, the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being re priced. The delay in the Federal Reserve's policy shift, the loosening of the US dollar's reserve position, and the rigid increase in physical mining costs have collectively built the long-term value support for Bitcoin. For short-term traders, the sustainability of ETF fund inflows will become a key indicator for observing market sentiment - when the $11.2 billion incremental funds only drive a 10% increase, it means that the market needs a stronger catalyst to break the balance.It is worth noting that the boundary between the traditional financial system and the crypto world is dissolving. When the central bank begins to question the reserve status of the US dollar, when sovereign funds allocate Bitcoin through ETFs, and when mining costs become the valuation benchmark, the cryptocurrency market is no longer an isolated speculative battlefield. In the currency system upheaval of 2025, Bitcoin may be becoming an important ballast for the new order.

This week's preview (6.16-6.22), Global Central Bank Week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming; BTC ETF net inflow of $1.37 billion, ETH ETF net inflow for five consecutive weeks