catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   According to Coinank data, tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, and SOON will experience significant unlocking this week (UTC+8), including: Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 10.5 billion tokens at 10pm on June 26th, with a ratio of 34.98% to the current flow and a value of approximately $22.5 million;Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4:00 pm on June 25th, with a ratio of 2.84% to the current flow and a value of approximately $10 million;SOON will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens at 4:30 pm on June 23, with a ratio of 22.41% to the current flow and a value of approximately $8.4 million;AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6pm on June 25th, with a current flow ratio of 6.83% and a value of approximately $6.7 million;Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8am on June 26th, with a ratio of 2.13% to current flow and a value of approximately $2.3 million;IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 15.16 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 25th, with a ratio of 0.39% to the current flow and a value of approximately 2.3 million US dollars;Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 182 million tokens at 8am on June 26th, with a 2.47% ratio to current flow and a value of approximately $2.1 million;Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock approximately 14.08 million tokens at 10pm on June 27th, with a ratio of 2.68% to current flow and a value of approximately $1.9 million;SingularityNET (AGIX) will unlock approximately 7.15 million tokens at 8am on June 28th, with a ratio of 2.38% to current flow and a value of approximately $1.9 million;The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) will unlock approximately 3.1 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 28th, with a ratio of 0.12% to the current flow and a value of approximately $1.9 million.

We believe that from the perspective of token economics, unlocking events will significantly increase market supply and may trigger short-term price fluctuations, especially when the unlocking ratio is high (such as BLAST accounting for 34.98%), exacerbating the risk of supply-demand imbalance. According to the dynamic valuation model, the value of tokens is mainly driven by user transaction demand, rather than traditional cash flow discounting; After unlocking, the influx of new tokens into the market may lower prices, but if it can accelerate platform adoption (such as by reducing transaction costs), it may actually strengthen network effects and stabilize long-term value. Historical data shows that similar events (such as ALT and OP unlocking in June 2024) often come with downward pressure on prices, and investors need to be vigilant about the spread of market panic, especially for high proportion projects. In addition, the design of tradable tokens may amplify the volatility of the secondary market, as users tend to quickly cash out after unlocking, further exacerbating the risk of selling. The total unlocking value this week is about 60 million US dollars, which is lower than the historical peak, but the concentrated release of projects such as BLAST still constitutes a local impact. It is recommended that investors pay attention to user adoption indicators (such as active addresses) to distinguish short-term disturbances from fundamental changes, and combine the S-curve model to predict the adoption stage and avoid blindly following the trend. In terms of risk management, it is advisable to diversify positions and monitor changes in liquidity to cope with potential fluctuations.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market was divided by conceptual sectors, with only Binance Smart Chain achieving a net inflow of funds, Launchpool、 Fan tokens, RWA, and Brc20 have smaller outflow scales. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 500 by market value), with FUN, LQTY, SEI, AERGO, T, and OKB tokens showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. CoinAnk data shows that on last trading day, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $1.02 billion per week. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest weekly net inflow last week was the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.23 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETFs with the highest net outflows last week were Ark Invest and 21Shares ETF ARKB, with a weekly net outflow of $188 million. At present, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is 126.54 billion US dollars, and the ETF's net asset ratio (the ratio of market value to the total market value of Bitcoin) is 6.14%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached 46.66 billion US dollars. We believe that last week's Bitcoin spot ETF showed significant differentiation, with a net outflow of $1.02 billion, reflecting that short-term market sentiment fluctuations may be due to profit taking or macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations. It is worth noting that BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $1.23 billion against the trend, highlighting its institutional attractiveness and market leadership position, which may benefit from BlackRock's brand advantages and continued increase in holdings strategy. On the contrary, ARKB's net outflow of $188 million may be due to internal strategy adjustments within the fund or changes in investor risk appetite. Overall, the total net asset value of ETFs reached 126.54 billion US dollars, with a net asset ratio of 6.14%. The historical cumulative net inflow was 46.66 billion US dollars, indicating that Bitcoin ETFs have become mainstream financial instruments with strong long-term capital inflows. This differentiation highlights the improvement of market maturity, short-term fluctuations do not affect structural trends, and institutional participation (such as BlackRock) remains the core driving force. In the future, attention should be paid to macroeconomic indicators and regulatory dynamics to predict the flow of funds.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to the CoinAnk clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $108900, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $8.98 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $95000, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $2.35 billion. We believe that Bitcoin clearing data reveals a significant escalation of market leverage risk and an extreme trend in long short games. According to the latest clearing map, the clearing intensity of empty orders will increase nearly 8 times compared to the 1.012 billion US dollars when it exceeded 100000 US dollars in May; If it is a downtrend, the liquidation intensity of multiple orders has increased by more than 10 times compared to the same threshold of 229 million in February. Reflecting the accumulation of leverage risk, the clearing threshold continues to rise, indicating that speculators are constantly piling up leverage at higher prices, leading to increased market fragility.There is also a liquidity siphon effect, where the liquidation intensity is not the actual amount, but rather the "relative intensity" indicator of the liquidity shock after the price hits. The current short position intensity of $8.98 billion indicates that breaking through the key level may trigger a "short squeeze" - a buying wave or self reinforcing uptrend triggered by forced liquidation; And the $2.35 billion long order intensity exposes the risk of a "long kill long" chain reaction during a pullback. We need to pay attention to the alienation of market structure, as the gap in clearing sizes between long and short positions has evolved from early equilibrium to nearly four times the current gap, indicating that short positions are betting more aggressively in historically high areas, which may lead to extreme volatility.The liquidation position may have become a "life and death line" for long and short positions, and any breakthrough in any direction may trigger a market shock due to the forced liquidation mechanism. Investors need to be alert to the amplification effect of the liquidity vortex.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. CoinAnk data shows that: On Monday, June 23rd, the Governor of the Bank of Korea will meet with the Governors of commercial banks and is expected to discuss issues such as the Korean won stablecoin; Federal Reserve Governor Bauman delivered a speech on monetary policy and the banking industry. June 24th, Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers testimony on the semi annual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee. June 25th, Wednesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before a Senate committee on the semi annual monetary policy report; FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech. June 26th, Thursday: The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 21st (in 10000 people) was 24.5. June 27th, Friday: The annual core PCE price index for May in the United States is expected to be 2.60%, compared to the previous value of 2.50%; The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June in the United States was 60.5. Deribit: Bitcoin options will have their largest quarterly delivery this Friday, with a maximum pain point of $100000; CoinList will initiate the sale of Pipe Network (PIPE) tokens; On Saturday, June 28th, the Thai SEC will block Bybit, 1000X, CoinEx, OKX, and XT platforms.

We believe that the core of this week's macro events and cryptocurrency market forecasts lies in the impact of policy communication, economic data, and regulatory changes on market uncertainty. Firstly, the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is a crucial event. Historical research shows that forward guidance from central bank communications (such as interest rate cut signals) has a much greater impact on market expectations than current economic conditions. A dovish stance may boost risk assets, but hawkish rhetoric can exacerbate volatility, especially in policy sensitive areas such as cryptocurrency. This is due to the increased transparency of the central bank, which makes the market more sensitive to policy signals and may lead to changes in short-term capital flows. The release of economic data, such as the June 27th Core PCE Price Index, will test the resilience of the US economy. If the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and drive the rebound of risk assets such as the cryptocurrency market; On the contrary, strong data may exacerbate "higher for longer" concerns and amplify volatility. As an inflation indicator, changes in PCE may also affect exchange rates and cross-border capital flows, indirectly impacting liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. In the cryptocurrency market, large-scale delivery of Bitcoin options (with a maximum pain point of $100000) may trigger short-term price fluctuations, which, combined with policy uncertainty (such as the Fed's speech), can easily lead to the risk of leveraged positions being liquidated. At the same time, the Thai SEC's blockade of multiple exchanges highlights regulatory differentiation. Similar events have increased regional policy uncertainty and suppressed investment confidence, but have limited impact on the global market. Tether's reserve behavior of holding over 100000 BTC, although aimed at enhancing stability, may not fully offset macro shocks in a high uncertainty environment. Overall, the interweaving of events this week will exacerbate economic policy uncertainty, with communication from the Federal Reserve being the dominant variable that may be transmitted to the cryptocurrency sector through market sentiment. We need to be vigilant about the chain reaction between data and regulation.