Macro interpretation: The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark today, hitting a new low since March 2022. Behind the continuous weakness of the US dollar is the strong appreciation of major currencies such as the Chinese yuan - both onshore and offshore Chinese yuan exchange rates have risen above the 7.16 mark, reaching a new high in nearly seven months. The profound changes in this currency landscape have prompted global capital to accelerate the search for non dollar denominated value storage methods, and the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin has therefore received some attention. The uncertainty of geopolitical and economic policies further reinforces this trend. In terms of the situation in the Middle East, the US Senate urgently adjusted the schedule of the confidential briefing on the Iran issue, and the dissatisfaction of the two parties with the government communication mechanism highlighted the escalating geopolitical risks. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's policy is in a delicate situation: if interest rate cuts continue to be suspended in July, it may intensify Trump's intention to replace the Fed chairman. The expectation of challenging the authority of this policy will further weaken the credit of the US dollar and drive safe haven funds to migrate towards decentralized assets. Multiple key signals of Bitcoin indicate that a new explosive market is about to begin. On the technical chart, the classic bull market flag shape has quietly formed - this is a brief consolidation stage that Bitcoin enters after experiencing a rapid rise in the early stage, usually indicating the accumulation of power for a new offensive. Currently, Bitcoin needs to effectively break through resistance levels to confirm its form validity. Once successful, the medium-term price is expected to reach a higher level. The core force supporting this technology expectation comes from the continuous layout of on chain capital. Historical data reveals a key pattern: large-scale fundraising by long-term holders (LTH) is often a precursor signal to Bitcoin's explosive market. At the two key milestones of $28000 and $60000, the significant increase in LTH holdings ultimately catalyzed price breakthroughs towards $60000 and $100000, respectively. At the current level of $100000, the LTH/STH position ratio is showing a growing trend again. If we refer to the accumulation pattern of about 4-8 weeks in the first two cycles and calculate with a conservative increase of 1.6 times, the next target for Bitcoin is also worth looking forward to. At the institutional level, although some executives of Strategy have recently cashed out about $40 million worth of stocks at high points, founder Michael Saylor's 19.6 million shares of Class B stocks remain steadfast. The differentiation between internal selling and founder persistence reflects both the market's need for periodic profit taking and the firm confidence of core capital in the long-term value of Bitcoin. The evolution of the liquidity pattern of the exchange also confirms the increase in market activity. The latest data shows that Binance maintains a leading liquidity depth of approximately $8 million within the Bitcoin ± $100 price range, followed closely by Bitget and OKX. In the fields of Ethereum and altcoins, the former exhibits liquidity within a fine spread range. The improvement of this infrastructure provides a solid guarantee for large-scale capital inflows and outflows. The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has added theoretical footnotes. The institution pointed out that stablecoins have not met the three key tests of singularity, elasticity, and integrity, and have not yet become a pillar of the monetary system. This authoritative statement indirectly confirms the unique value of unstable encrypted assets such as Bitcoin - against the backdrop of significant flaws in both traditional financial systems and emerging stablecoins, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and decentralized characteristics, is becoming an important safe haven for global capital. Overall, the breakthrough of technological forms, the firm attraction of long-term capital, the weakening of US dollar credit, and the upgrading of geopolitical risks, together constitute the "golden triangle" of Bitcoin's historical high impact. When the triple signals of the bull market flag confirming a breakthrough, long-term holders completing their position accumulation, and the continued pressure on the US dollar index are superimposed, the path of Bitcoin's progress will become exceptionally clear. This new chapter of the bull market, driven by technology, capital, and macro factors, has already begun.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, the price of Bitcoin remains around $107000, and the ratio of holdings between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) is showing a rebound trend. Looking back at past market cycles, similar accumulation stages usually last for 4 to 8 weeks. If combined with a conservative 1.6-fold increase prediction model, Bitcoin's future price is expected to further rise. Historical data shows that a significant increase in LTH holdings often serves as a precursor to price breakthroughs, for example, at the levels of $28000 and $60000, an increase in LTH holdings catalyzed prices to jump to $60000 and $100000, respectively. From the perspective of research interpretation, the growth of LTH/STH ratio reflects the restoration of market confidence. LTH continues to attract funds and reduce circulation supply, supporting the upward potential of Bitcoin. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that key resistance levels such as $99900 may trigger profit taking, and strong buying and selling pressure are needed to digest and maintain the upward trend. If the demand for STH can match the supply of LTH, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $100000 mark, thereby driving the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market. The historical cycle analysis once pointed to a target of $126000, implying potential upside potential, but external risks such as regulatory changes or liquidity fluctuations need to be considered. For the cryptocurrency market, a strong breakthrough in Bitcoin will boost the trading volume of altcoins and derivatives, strengthen bull market expectations, but short-term downside risks such as miners selling or macro factors need to be closely monitored.