Macro interpretation: The dust of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of this morning has settled, and the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged. Although the dot matrix maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year, internal opposition has increased and differences have become more open. Chairman Powell made it clear that interest rate cuts need to be based on a sustained decline in inflation. This "data-driven" hawkish tendency instantly extinguished the market's enthusiasm for the July rate cut, and the expected probability plummeted to around 10%. The policy balance swings between economic growth and inflation control, with uncertainty permeating and risk assets under pressure. The postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window and the widening of internal cracks undoubtedly cast a shadow over the short-term liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, making volatility management an urgent task. But historical patterns indicate that once the interest rate cut cycle is established, the massive liquidity released by the low interest rate environment will eventually benefit high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, and its ability to resist the dilution of the US dollar's purchasing power still has long-term appeal. In terms of short-term market performance, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly around $105000, while mainstream currencies such as ETH and SOL have generally experienced slight declines, with MEME experiencing a more significant decline. The market trading volume has synchronously shrunk, and investors' risk aversion has significantly increased under the dual pressure of the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East (rumors that the United States may intervene in the Iran Israel conflict), with a significant decline in risk appetite. However, on chain data reveals a deeper resilience code in the market. The latest report from Fidelity Digital Assets reveals a key trend that "10-year Bitcoin", which refers to Bitcoin that has not moved for at least ten years, is accumulating at an astonishing rate. Since April this year, an average of 566 BTC have joined this "ultra long term holding" camp every day, which even exceeds the circulating supply of miners adding about 450 BTC per day. At present, the total number of bitcoins sleeping for more than a decade has exceeded 3.4 million, accounting for more than 17% of BTC's total mining output. Fidelity estimates that, with the continuous decline of new currency output after halving, the proportion of such "fossil" bitcoins will exceed 20% by 2030. More interestingly, CoinAnk data shows that the willingness of both whales and individual investors to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges has dropped to a cyclical low. The silence and reluctance of coin holders in the face of market turbulence have built a strong downward support. At the same time, a revolution about the future of monetary form is quietly gaining endorsement within the system. US Treasury Secretary Vincent publicly expressed a shocking view: Cryptocurrencies not only do not threaten the hegemony of the US dollar, but stablecoins may become a new tool to consolidate their global dominance. Frankly speaking, digital assets are one of the most important phenomena in the world today, criticizing past governments for neglecting them, and emphasizing that this administration will make every effort to promote the United States as a center for digital asset innovation. This stance echoes Trump's recent high-profile call for the House of Representatives to pass the GENIUS Act as soon as possible. The shift in political direction has ignited market enthusiasm: the US cryptocurrency sector is experiencing turbulence, with stablecoin giant Circle's stock price soaring 33.8% and Coinbase's rising 16%. Analysts from Bernstein and Barclays, Wall Street institutions, agreed that if the bill were to be implemented at the end of the summer, the stable currency would jump from a crypto ecological payment tool to a "monetary track of the Internet", opening up explosive revenue growth space for core infrastructure companies such as Circle and Coinbase. On one hand, the uncertainty of macro policies suppresses risk appetite in the current market, while on the other hand, on chain data shows astonishing holding power and long-term beliefs - millions of bitcoins have fallen silent in the long river of time, and chip lock-in continues to increase. And regulatory breakthroughs, especially the legalization and institutionalization of stablecoins represented by the GENIUS Act, have injected structural benefits into the industry. It not only has the potential to reshape the global payment landscape and consolidate the digital era hegemony of the US dollar, but also introduces the vast incremental funds and compliance development framework of the traditional financial world into the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, despite being constrained by the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" attitude and geopolitical waves in the short term, the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, are still driven by two core engines: the deterministic trend of global liquidity cycle shifting towards loose liquidity, and the industry infrastructure leap and mainstream acceptance leap brought about by the implementation of stablecoin regulation. Investors need to maintain strategic composure amidst volatility, as time will eventually prove. Silent coin holding and regulatory breakthroughs are quietly laying the foundation for the next round of value reassessment.
BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, BTC prices have remained at a high consolidation level in the $100000 to $110000 range, but on chain data shows that BTC reserves on the exchange have dropped to the lowest level in recent years. Both large institutional investors (whales) and individual investors have seen a significant decline in the amount of Bitcoin transferred to trading platforms, indicating a strong reluctance among holders to sell and a firm willingness to hold positions in a volatile price environment.From the perspective of market structure, this supply-demand change reflects investors' recognition of the long-term value of BTC. The decline in exchange balances directly exacerbates the scarcity in circulation, and the continuous increase in holdings by whales (such as the record breaking accumulation of new whales entering in 2025) and the divergence of retail investors leaving the market may drive the market from being dominated by retail sentiment to an institutionalized allocation stage. Historical data shows that when whales accumulate during market downturns, it often indicates a price rebound. The current annual volatility of BTC has dropped to a historical low, and the risk adjusted returns are still better than traditional assets, further consolidating its positioning as a value storage tool. However, we need to be cautious of the risk of insufficient liquidity - if the off exchange cannot digest the selling pressure, it may trigger a short-term sharp decline (such as the support level warned by the 2024 model). Overall, the increase in coin holding concentration and supply contraction may accumulate momentum for BTC to break through the resistance level of $110000, but macroeconomic changes (such as expectations of US GDP contraction) remain potential disruptive factors.