Trump's congressional speech did not mention BTC, market focuses on this week's non farm payroll and White House crypto summit

Macro interpretation: As politicians in Washington frequently discuss the strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies, this field, which was originally detached from the mainstream financial system, is experiencing an unprecedented dramatic turning point. Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been like riding a roller coaster, rising from 78000 to a high of nearly $95000, then falling to $81000 and rebounding to the current level of nearly $89000. The market volatility perfectly embodies the essential characteristics of the "news market". In this encryption game led by the White House, every participant is like a trump card player, and Trump is the banker who keeps adding money. As the most significant "macro variable" in the cryptocurrency market, the Trump administration's policy toolbox is releasing multiple signals. Despite deliberately avoiding the topic of cryptocurrency in his congressional speech, the President clearly understands the principle that "action speaks louder than words" - the plan to include mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve is essentially opening up a second front outside the traditional fiat currency system. It is interesting that the details exposed by The New York Times show that the Trump family has already invested millions of dollars in laying out encrypted assets, which reminds people of the ancient fable of "self theft". A famous professor at Cornell University commented quite vividly: 'It's like confiscating a gold mine dug in one's backyard and then casually putting a few gold bricks in one's pocket.'. The market's response to this policy change can be described as a precise on-site analysis. Against the backdrop of the collective rise of the three major US stock index futures, the cryptocurrency market has shown a rare cautious attitude. Behind this fragmented market is the complex expectations of investors for the White House Crypto Summit on March 8th. Although top executives from companies such as Coinbase and Chainlink will gather in Washington, the virtual talks lacking specific policy commitments have only exacerbated market anxiety. QCP Capital's analyst bluntly stated, 'This is like inviting hunters to discuss how to protect sheep herds, which may eventually evolve into a barbecue party that feeds on lamb chops.'. The volatility of traditional financial markets has added more variables to this crypto game. The US dollar index has fallen below the 105 level after four months, and the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve has deepened. The GDP forecast model of the Atlanta Fed has also raised the red light of a -2.8% recession. These signals have forced the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year have resurfaced. It is interesting that the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market have recently shown a misplaced linkage of "darkness that doesn't understand day and night" - when technology stocks plummeted due to tariff threats, Bitcoin staged a deep V rebound, reflecting the market's confusion about the positioning of digital currencies due to its dual personality of risk aversion and risky assets. In the fog of policy, Wall Street's capital hunters have begun to lay out their rear hand. The rumors of a merger between Coinbase and traditional exchanges are not groundless, and the potential acquisition intention of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is in line with the Trump administration's regulatory approach of "tradition+innovation". If this billion dollar alliance comes true, cryptocurrency exchanges will receive compliance endorsement from the New York Stock Exchange, but at the cost of sacrificing their decentralized beliefs. This business logic of 'joining if you can't beat' is reshaping the power structure of the crypto world. However, behind the frenzy of the market, there always lurks the ghost of safety. The monthly loss of 1.53 billion US dollars has reached a historic high, and the heroic feat of North Korean hacker group Lazarus plundering 1.4 billion US dollars in a single transaction has rendered Bybit's security defense ineffective. These shocking numbers remind us that when mainstream capital enters the market in large numbers, the infrastructure construction of the crypto world is still stuck in the era of western exploration. As a security expert joked, entering the cryptocurrency market now requires both a trading terminal and a bulletproof vest. At this point in time to assess market trends, investors may need to focus on three key milestones: the substantive outcomes of the White House summit, the economic truth revealed by March's non farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's policy response to the threat of stagflation. From a technical perspective, the volatile box formed by Bitcoin in the $78000-95000 range is like the calm before a storm. If it breaks through the previous high, it is expected to start a sprint towards $100000; If the psychological barrier of 80000 is breached, it may trigger a stampede market of killing more. In this game of policy and market, ordinary investors may remember the ancient saying on Wall Street: when a shoeshine boy starts talking about stocks, he should be vigilant. Now the owner of the Oval Office of the White House talks about encryption strategy in person. Is it a sign of maturity of the industry or a precursor to the bursting of the foam? Perhaps only time can provide the answer. But what can be certain is that the cryptocurrency market is experiencing the most magical chapter of realism since its inception - here, the president's Twitter, hackers' keyboards, and mining machines' computing power are collectively writing a new script for the crypto era.

BTC data analysis: CoinAnk data shows that today's cryptocurrency panic and greed index has slightly rebounded from yesterday's 15 to 20, still in a state of "extreme panic"# The average value of fear&green last week was 21 (extreme panic), and the average value last month was 44 (panic), indicating that market sentiment remains sluggish. We believe that the cryptocurrency panic and greed index has rebounded from 15 to 20, but still remains in the 'extreme panic' range. This weak rebound reveals that the current market is still in the tail stage of a liquidity run. Compared to the sustained decline in the average of 44 (panic) last month, the elongation of the emotional freezing point may indicate that the adjustment is shifting from short-term shocks to the release of structural pressures. In terms of short-term recovery momentum, the marginal improvement of the index may stem from the entry of technical buying# BTC formed partial support around $78000, and the derivative funding rate rebounded from -0.25% to -0.08%, indicating the beginning of a rebound driven by short selling. However, the balance of stablecoins on the exchange only slightly increased by 0.7%, indicating that incremental funds have not yet intervened on a large scale, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. The mid-term structural contradiction is reflected in the fragmented behavior of market entities: on chain data shows that the address of the giant whale (holding 1000+BTC) has increased its holdings of 23000 bitcoins in the past 7 days, while retail holdings (<1BTC) have decreased by 41000, accelerating the concentration of chips towards strong hands. This differentiation often indicates that the bottom construction is approaching, but emotional recovery needs to wait for macro catalysts (such as the cooling of US CPI data). Comparing historical cycles, the difference between the current and June 2022 (index 10) is that the daily net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has decreased from 560 million to 120 million US dollars, and the total market value of stablecoins has exceeded 161 billion US dollars (an increase of 47% compared to that time), with a better liquidity buffer. However, the Ethereum staking yield fell to 3.2% and the SOL ecosystem TVL shrank by 36%, weakening the overall risk appetite of the market. The future path may present an "L-shaped bottoming out" feature: Bitcoin or relying on institutional position resilience to maintain range volatility, while altcoins need to undergo liquidity rebalancing (such as VC unlocking tide clearing) to start a new cycle. The recovery of sentiment indicators after bottoming out usually lags behind the price bottom by 1-2 months, and investors need to pay attention to the dual signals of ETF fund flow reversal and on chain turnover rate bottoming out.