catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs;

4. BTC clearing map data;

5. Forecast and analysis of key macro events and financial data for this week.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   From March 31st to April 6th this week, 28 tokens will be unlocked in one go. Sort by unlocking value as follows: Among them, the unlocking value of OP, SOL, W, CHELL, and ENA exceeds 20 million US dollars: OP will unlock over 32.2122 million tokens on March 31st, with an unlocking value of approximately $27.77 million, accounting for 0.75% of the total circulation; SOL will unlock over 2.7248 million tokens on April 1st, with an unlocking value of $363 million, accounting for 0.54% of the total circulation; W will unlock over 1.367 billion tokens on April 3rd, with an unlocking value of $130 million, accounting for 13.68% of the total circulation; CHELL will unlock over 2.6715 million tokens on April 3rd, with an unlocking value of 21.53 million US dollars, accounting for 0.27% of the total circulation; ENA will unlock over 134 million tokens on April 5th, with an unlocked value of 54.49 million US dollars, accounting for 0.9% of the flow. It is worth noting that SOL ranks first with an unlocked value of 363 million US dollars, and has increased by 4.23% in the past 7 days.

The unlocking status of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the relevant markets. The above is UTC+8 time. This week, pay attention to the negative effects of unlocking these tokens, avoid spot trading, and seek short selling opportunities in contracts. The figure shows the Coinark data. We believe that the unlocking pressure of SOL is controllable, but we need to be cautious of market sentiment fluctuations. Although the unlocking amount of SOL is as high as 363 million US dollars, it only accounts for 0.54% of the flow, and its actual impact on the market is relatively limited. Based on historical experience, institutional investors purchased SOL at an average price of $64 in the FTX bankruptcy auction, and the current price has seen a significant profit drop. However, the selling motivation may be weakened due to long-term strategic planning. In addition, the recent strong price trend of SOL (up 4.23% in the past 7 days) reflects the market's confidence in its ecological development, and the pledge mechanism and on chain activity also provide support for the price. The unlocking ratio of W and CHELL is high, and the short-term risk is significant: the unlocking volume of W accounts for 13.68% of the circulation, far exceeding SOL and ENA (0.9%), and its surge in flow may trigger short-term selling pressure. Similar events led to significant fluctuations in W prices in July 2024, and caution should be exercised regarding the risk of liquidity dilution. Although CHELL has a lower unlocking amount, its circulation ratio (0.27%) is still higher than SOL. If there is a lack of demand support, there will be greater pressure for price correction. The actual impact of token unlocking on the market depends on the behavior of the holders. Historical data shows that institutional investors tend to hold high growth potential tokens (such as SOL) for the long term, while projects dominated by retail investors (such as W) have higher short-term volatility risks. Against the backdrop of the current market recovery, investors need to pay attention to changes in trading volume after unlocking and assess risks based on project fundamentals. SOL may be able to absorb selling pressure due to its ecological advantages, but high circulation tokens need to be handled with caution.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency market has achieved net inflows of funds in five conceptual sectors: Avalanche Ecology, Arbitrarum Ecology, Optimism Ecology, Fan Token, and Launchpool. In the past week, many currencies have also experienced cyclical increases. Select the top 500 tokens with relatively high market value, such as MLN, ZEC, FORM, REQ, CORE, and XAUT, and continue to prioritize trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs. CoinAnk data shows a net inflow of $196.4 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week; The US spot Ethereum ETF has accumulated a net outflow of $8.7 million. With Nasdaq submitting a 19b-4 form application for the Grey Avalanche ETF, there are currently 11 types of altcoin ETFs submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, including XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, SUI, HBAR, DOT, LTC, APT, and AXL. It is reported that VanEck has also filed for the Avalanche ETF before, and AVAX is currently the 15th largest digital asset by market value. We believe that the capital flow and product expansion trend of US encrypted ETFs reflect the risk repricing logic of institutional investors towards different categories of digital assets. The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in a single week was $196 million, which is different from the net outflow of Ethereum ETF of $8.7 million, reflecting the difference in regulatory attitudes - the SEC's consensus on BTC's "non securities" enhances institutional allocation confidence, while the pending review of ETH staking mechanism suppresses fund accumulation. The wave of expansion of altcoin ETFs reveals a deeper trend: 11 token ETF applications cover assets such as XRP, SOL, AVAX, etc. Essentially, it is a passive adaptation of traditional finance to the diversified narrative of the cryptocurrency market. Taking AVAX as an example, the competition between Grayscale and VanEck for ETFs is closely related to their modular subnet architecture attracting institutional level applications (such as the JPMorgan Onyx settlement trial), but the ranking of 15th in market value implies that liquidity barriers remain a key constraint. The current application list presents three characteristics: public chain infrastructure (DOT, APT), payment tokens (XRP, LTC), and Meme assets (DOGE), reflecting the institution's attempt to capture segmented track beta returns within the regulatory framework. On the potential impact level, if approved, altcoin ETFs may trigger a liquidity siphon effect, but two major risks need to be cautious: first, the SEC may exacerbate market volatility through a "batch release" strategy, such as approving only a portion of ETFs to trigger fund migration; Secondly, the imbalance between the market value of underlying assets and the size of ETFs may amplify the risk of price manipulation. In the short term, the return of funds from Bitcoin ETFs may indicate a new stage of "core asset bottoming out - shanzhai narrative rotation" in the market, but the regulatory arbitrage space in the institutionalization process is narrowing.

3. BTC liqMap data. According to the CoinAnk liqMap data, if BTC breaks through $88660, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $8.134 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $78260, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $1.355 billion. We believe that the asymmetric clearing threshold formed by Bitcoin in the range of $78260 to $88660 reflects the strategic layout differences between long and short forces at key price levels. Market elasticity differentiation is significant: if it exceeds $88660, it will trigger a liquidation of $8.13 billion in short orders, which is six times stronger than multi order liquidation, indicating that short positions are heavily guarded near historical highs; However, the liquidation volume of multiple orders below $78260 is only $1.35 billion, reflecting the relatively restrained leverage of long positions, which may provide institutional funds with a bottom line. The structural drivers consist of three logical factors: firstly, the open contract gap of CME Bitcoin futures is currently reported at $85200, forming a technical resonance with the clearing peak; Secondly, short positions are concentrated above $89000, and some hedge funds are attempting to bet on weak ETF fund flows (with a net outflow of $830 million last week) to suppress breakthrough momentum; Thirdly, on chain data shows that the giant whale increased its holdings of 28000 BTC in the $78000-80000 range, forming a liquidity moat. On the potential transmission path, breaking through $88660 may trigger a bearish stampede, pushing the price to test the psychological threshold of $95000, but caution should be exercised against profit taking caused by the sudden increase in derivative funding rates (currently 0.03%). If it falls below $78260, it may result in a bullish consolidation or a combination of miners selling (900 per day), but 94% of ETF holders' holding costs are below $75000, which may limit the downward space. The current market is in a liquidity rebalancing stage of bull market relay, and the direction selection needs to be verified through the synergy of macro liquidity and on chain chip distribution.

4. Key macro events and financial data forecasts for this week. The important macro data to be released this week are as follows: Monday 21:45, Chicago PMI for March in the United States Tuesday 21:45, US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value Wednesday 20:15, ADP employment figures for March in the United States At 01:00 on Thursday, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech At 19:30 on Thursday, the European Central Bank released the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting At 19:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in March in the United States On Friday at 00:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech Friday 20:30, March US unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non farm payroll for March, and March average hourly wage annual/monthly rate in the United States On Friday at 23:25, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech.

The intensive release of macroeconomic data and speeches by central bank officials in the United States and Europe this week will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The core focus areas include:

1. Federal Reserve policy expectations dominate market sentiment. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Friday and statements from multiple officials will be the focus. If it emphasizes inflation stickiness or delays interest rate cuts (such as the hawkish tendency mentioned), it may exacerbate the selling of risky assets, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may come under pressure. On the contrary, if it implies that an economic slowdown requires a policy shift, it may boost market liquidity expectations and drive a rebound in cryptocurrency assets. In addition, ADP employment data, as a non farm forward indicator, may strengthen expectations of high interest rates and suppress buying in the cryptocurrency market if it shows an overheated labor market.

2. Cross validation between non farm payroll data and PMI. Friday's non farm employment, unemployment rate, and wage growth data are particularly crucial. If employment growth exceeds expectations (such as the forecast of+200000 people) and wages rise month on month, it may confirm economic resilience, weaken the necessity of interest rate cuts, and lead to a synchronous correction in the cryptocurrency market and the US stock market. On the contrary, if the data is weak (as indicated by signs of slowing employment), it will enhance expectations of easing, lead to a rebound in risk appetite, or drive up cryptocurrency prices. Meanwhile, if the manufacturing PMI falls below the boom bust line (such as the analyzed contraction risk), it may trigger concerns about economic recession, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin as the "digital gold".

3. Spillover effects of the European Central Bank's movements. If Lagarde's speech and meeting minutes release signals of early interest rate cuts in the eurozone, it may push up the US dollar index through the depreciation of the euro, suppressing cryptocurrencies denominated in US dollars. On the contrary, if Europe maintains a tightening stance and the US dollar weakens relatively, it will facilitate the inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market. Comprehensive impact path: The cryptocurrency market may exhibit high volatility this week, especially in short-term trading before and after data release. The medium-term trend still depends on the game between the Federal Reserve's policy path and the possibility of a macroeconomic "soft landing". If the data combination shows "strong employment+high inflation", Bitcoin may explore key support levels; The combination of "weak employment+low PMI" may catalyze the market's bet on loose liquidity, driving cryptocurrency assets to break through resistance. Historical experience has shown that subtle changes in Powell's wording often trigger drastic price fluctuations, and caution should be exercised against sudden market fluctuations after his speech.