Macro interpretation: The US non farm payroll report, as a key indicator of the US economic situation, has an impact on global financial markets, including stocks, foreign exchange, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. We will conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of the non farm employment report based on recent relevant reports, and explore its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC. The economic data and policy developments in the United States have attracted much attention. The US stock market has shown a mixed trend under the guidance of corporate financial reports, with the S&P 500 index rising for three consecutive days. Investors are focused on the upcoming non farm payroll report. In the global economic landscape, US employment data is not only a barometer of the country's economic health, but also has a profound impact on global capital flows and market sentiment. The US non farm payroll report for January is about to be released, accompanied by annual revised data, making it the focus of market attention. The market expects to add 170000 new jobs, far lower than the previous value of 256000, and considering various factors that may drag down employment, such as the Los Angeles wildfires and cold weather. The biggest highlight of this report is the annual revision of employment data for the 12 months ending March 2024, with economists expecting the actual downward revision to be between 600000 and 700000 people. This revision will have a significant impact on labor market data, which in turn will affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. The recent statements by Federal Reserve officials regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts have also attracted market attention. Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said that if the job market does not significantly cool down, even if inflation slows down, it does not constitute a reason for further interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsby believes that although stable economic growth and falling inflation create conditions for interest rate cuts, tariffs and policy uncertainty will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Daley also sent signals to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts. These statements have made the market more cautious about the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts. The non farm payroll report's response history to the gold market shows that gold prices have a stronger reaction to disappointing employment data. There is a certain negative correlation between gold prices and non farm unexpected situations within 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours after 35 non farm data releases. However, this correlation is not entirely significant, as market reactions are also influenced by other factors such as wage inflation, labor force participation rate, and data correction. The impact of the non farm payroll report on the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, cannot be ignored. Firstly, non farm payroll data affects the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which in turn affects global capital flows. Bitcoin, as an emerging safe haven asset and store of value, has a certain correlation between its price trend and macroeconomic environment and monetary policy. When non farm payroll data shows strong performance, the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening policy or slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, which may lead to capital outflows from risky assets and put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. On the contrary, if the non farm payroll data falls short of expectations and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts increase, funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving up the price of Bitcoin. The market volatility triggered by the non farm payroll report can also affect investor sentiment and risk appetite. Before and after the release of non farm payroll data, market uncertainty increased and investor sentiment fluctuated significantly. This emotional change may be transmitted to the cryptocurrency market, leading to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. For example, at the moment of non farm payroll data release, if the data deviates significantly from expectations and market panic spreads, the price of Bitcoin may plummet or skyrocket instantly. The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets is gradually increasing. As more and more institutional investors enter the cryptocurrency market, the impact of fluctuations in traditional financial markets on the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly significant. The non farm payroll report, as an important event in traditional financial markets, may trigger a chain reaction that could be transmitted to the cryptocurrency market through the trading behavior of institutional investors, thereby affecting the price of Bitcoin. The US non farm payroll report has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, and we need to closely monitor changes in non farm payroll data and their impact on the market. In the current market environment, the cryptocurrency market presents new trends and characteristics, and it is possible to grasp emerging trends, allocate assets reasonably, and obtain potential investment opportunities. At the same time, we also need to be vigilant about market risks and do a good job in risk management to cope with market uncertainty.

BTC data and market analysis:

Recently, # BTC long-term holders have been in a trend of reducing their holdings, according to Coinark data# The long-term holding trend of HODL waves is downward from 1 to 10 years. Over 20000 # bitcoins have flowed out of long-term holders' wallets in the past 96 hours. This may also be the reason for the recent weakening of the market. In addition, tonight at 21:30, the US non farm payroll data and unemployment rate data will be released, which may exacerbate the volatility of the market. Pay attention to risks and trading opportunities.

The recent BTC market has shown a clear trend of volatility and decline. From the K-line chart, it can be seen that the price has experienced a period of upward movement before rebounding and is currently in a consolidation state, fluctuating around $97300. From the overall trend, after BTC broke through the $100000 mark, the market's long short divergence intensified, and the price experienced a repeated tug of war at high levels. The recent trend can be summarized as "repeated oscillations and intensified long short games", and it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in key support and resistance levels. From a technical perspective, Coinank's Super Trend Indicator shows that BTC is currently in a short-term bullish trend, but in the short term, the lower indicator is at the $94350 level, which has become a key short-term support. If this support can be maintained, the rebound is expected to continue. The short-term resistance above is around $100740 and $102450, and it will continue to fluctuate before breaking. The medium-term resistance levels can be monitored at $107000 and $110000. If there is a fluctuation and a pullback, the lower support level can refer to around $91230 and the important support level of $89250 in the previous period. The MACD indicator shows that the DIF and DEA lines are hovering around the zero axis, indicating a weakened market momentum. Attention should be paid to the volatility brought by tonight's non farm payroll data.