Analysis of two abnormal data: 5000 addresses holding at least 1 BTC have sharply decreased, and Bitcoin search volume has hit a six-month low!
May 15th, 2025

Analysis of two abnormal data: 5000 addresses holding at least 1 BTC have sharply decreased, and Bitcoin search volume has hit a six-month low!

Macro interpretation: As the price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate above $100000, the market is experiencing some complex changes. The latest report from Deutsche Bank suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates until December before initiating a rate cut cycle, creating a subtle resonance between this "long-term high-pressure" monetary policy and global capital flows. The GENIUS bill, which is about to be passed by the US Senate, has removed controversial provisions targeting the Trump family, clearing the way for the establishment of a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. This not only paves the way for institutional funds to enter the market, but also implies that cryptocurrency assets are being included in the traditional financial regulatory vision. It is worth noting that former US President Trump has recently issued frequent diplomatic signals, claiming that an agreement with Iran is about to be reached. If this geopolitical easing trend comes true, it may weaken the position of the US dollar as a safe haven asset and drive more capital to seek alternative value storage tools such as Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes' predictive model shows that if 10% of the global $3.3 trillion investment portfolio is allocated to Bitcoin, it will trigger a fundamental change in the market liquidity structure - BTC, which currently has only $30 billion in stock on exchanges, may trigger a non-linear price explosion in the face of $330 billion in potential buying. On chain data reveals intriguing market differentiation: despite the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, the number of wallets holding one BTC has sharply decreased by 5000 within two months, indicating that the Whale account is spreading its chips across multiple addresses. According to analysis using the STH-MVRV indicator, when the value reaches 1.25, corresponding to $118000, it will trigger a significant selling pressure in the first round, which forms a technical and fundamental resonance point with the possible policy shift window of the Federal Reserve. The market heat index shows a dual trend of ice and fire. Solana Ecological DEX saw a 48% surge in weekly trading volume to $27.5 billion, indicating that new funds are pouring into innovative agreements. But Google's "Bitcoin" search volume hit a six-month low, exposing retail investors' cautious attitude towards the current high. This deviation between the behavior of institutions and individual investors is similar to the compound form of the 2017 bull market peak and the 2021 institutional bull market, indicating that this round of market may present more complex volatility characteristics. There are undercurrents at the regulatory level, and the latest speech by the Chairman of the US SEC clearly states the need to establish a complete system of rules for the issuance, custody, and trading of cryptocurrency assets. In the accelerated trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States, the digital currency clearing system may become a technological breakthrough to break the tariff deadlock. The gradual formation of this regulatory framework not only brings convenience for compliant deposits, but may also change the anonymity of cryptocurrencies through KYC/AML requirements. When we connect these clues, we will find that institutional investors are quietly laying out through stablecoin channels, regulatory arbitrage space is gradually narrowing, and geopolitical games are giving rise to new types of safe haven demand - under the interweaving of these three forces, mid June may become a key time point. At that time, the STH-MVRV indicator will hit the warning line, the Federal Reserve's policy will become clearer, and the implementation of geopolitical agreements will resonate with multiple factors, which may trigger a 10-15% level of technical adjustment. However, in the medium to long term, the purchasing power reconstruction brought about by capital migration will still be the dominant trend. This new crypto cycle, driven by regulatory arbitrage, geopolitical changes, and technological evolution, is reshaping the underlying logic of global asset allocation.

BTC data analysis: As the price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate above $100000, CoinAnk's on chain data shows that the activity of small addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC has decreased by 16% from its peak. In the past two months, the number of wallets holding at least 1 BTC has decreased by 5000, indicating that funds are gathering among professional investors. Google search volume has also recently fallen to a six-month low, shrinking by 38% compared to the same period in 2024, forming a significant 'price attention divergence'. This abnormal phenomenon reflects a deep transformation in the market structure: institutional investors are dominating the flow of funds through compliance tools such as ETFs (BlackRock IBIT holds over 250000 BTC), while the participation enthusiasm of traditional retail investors has significantly cooled due to increased risk awareness (leverage utilization rate has decreased by 42%) and historical cycle experience (top entry losses in 2024). The sluggish interest of retail investors may delay the formation of a market peak, but at the same time, it also exacerbates the risk of liquidity stratification - the market value of Bitcoin has risen to 62%, and small and medium-sized tokens may face more severe selling pressure. Historical patterns show that retail investors usually enter the market in a concentrated manner one week after the price breaks through (such as a 380% surge in search volume in November 2024). If this pattern continues in the current cycle, Bitcoin may trigger a short-term FOMO market after breaking through $109000. However, the structure of the derivatives market has undergone a qualitative change: institutional led quarterly contract holdings have surged threefold, resulting in a decrease in the central volatility from 82% to 56%, and the market is transitioning from "emotion driven" to "fundamental pricing". Although this transformation reduces the risk of short-term collapse, it may weaken the high elasticity premium of cryptocurrency assets, forcing investors to reassess the risk return ratio.

Subscribe to CoinAnk
Receive the latest updates directly to your inbox.
Mint this entry as an NFT to add it to your collection.
Verification
This entry has been permanently stored onchain and signed by its creator.
More from CoinAnk

Skeleton

Skeleton

Skeleton