catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts for the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   This week, multiple tokens will be unlocked in one go. Sort by unlocking value as follows: SUI, OMNI, OP and other tokens will receive large unlocking next week, including: Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 74 million tokens at 8am on May 1st, with a ratio of 2.28% to current flow and a value of approximately $267 million;Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock approximately 15.98 million tokens at 7pm on May 2nd, with a ratio of 83.51% to the current flow and a value of approximately $42.2 million;Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8am on April 30th, with a ratio of 1.89% to current flow and a value of approximately $25.7 million;Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8pm on April 30th, with a current flow ratio of 16.98% and a value of approximately 14.5 million US dollars;Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3pm on May 2nd, with a ratio of 0.73% to the current flow and a value of approximately $14.2 million;ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8am on May 1st, with a ratio of 5.67% to current flow and a value of approximately $11.3 million.

The unlocking status of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the relevant markets. The above is UTC+8 time, and the graph shows coinark data. We believe that the impact of this week's token unlocking event on the market can be interpreted from two aspects: supply and demand dynamics and project background. SUI ranks first with a unlocking scale of 267 million US dollars, but only accounts for 2.28% of the flow, and the short-term selling pressure is relatively controllable. Historical data shows that the price fluctuation of SUI is relatively small after multiple large-scale unlocks, which may be due to the project party hedging risks in advance through ecological cooperation (such as integrating USDC) and marketing methods. The unlocking ratio of OMNI is as high as 83.51%, and a sudden increase in circulation may cause severe fluctuations, so it is necessary to be cautious of concentrated selling by holders. The unlocking ratio of tokens such as OP and ENA is less than 5%, which belongs to the regular release rhythm. Based on past cases (such as OP's strong price resilience after multiple unlocks in 2024), such low proportion unlocks have limited impact on the market, but attention should be paid to market sentiment during the same period. It is worth noting that the unlocking ratios of ZETA and KMNO are 5.67% and 16.98%, respectively. Although the absolute values are not high, if the ecological progress of the project lags behind, it may amplify negative effects. From a strategic perspective, the project team tends to release positive information before unlocking, such as SUI's recent promotion of game hardware SUIPlay0XI and the introduction of institutional cooperation, or preparations to alleviate selling pressure. In addition, high flow projects (such as SUI with a current circulation of over 270 million pieces) have a good market depth and strong liquidity buffering capacity, while emerging projects (such as OMNI) are more vulnerable to shocks due to insufficient liquidity. So, investors need to conduct differentiated evaluations: mainstream tokens such as SUI have controllable short-term risks, but they need to pay attention to the pace of unlocking in the future; OMNI and other high proportion projects have prominent volatility risks; OP, ENA, etc. may continue to maintain a stable trend. Suggest dynamically adjusting strategies based on project fundamentals and unlocked on chain data (such as changes in giant whale holdings).

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market has achieved net inflows of funds in the Avalanche ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Arbitrarum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, # BSC, Ethereum ecosystem, and Launchpool sectors, divided by conceptual sectors. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 500 by market value), with PENGU, MYRO, VIRTUAL, ARC, and MICHI tokens showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. According to CoinAnk data, the cumulative net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs last week was $3.0629 billion, with a net inflow of funds for 5 trading days. Nearly 16 months after the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale GBTC still dominates in revenue creation, with implied annual revenue exceeding $268 million, surpassing the total revenue of all other Bitcoin ETFs ($211 million). We believe that from the perspective of researchers, the recent capital flow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has shown significant differentiation characteristics. Data shows that last week (as of the week ending April 28, 2025), Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of $3.06 billion, maintaining a net inflow of funds for five consecutive trading days, indicating that the market's demand for cryptocurrency asset allocation remains resilient. However, Grayscale's GBTC has demonstrated a unique market position: despite its long-term net outflow of funds (historical cumulative outflow exceeding $20 billion), its implied annual revenue is still as high as $268 million, exceeding the total revenue of all other Bitcoin ETFs ($211 million), mainly due to its large stock size and high fee structure. From the perspective of competitive landscape, emerging ETFs such as BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC continue to attract incremental funds with their low fee strategies, such as IBIT reaching a peak net inflow of $2.15 billion in a single week. However, through brand accumulation and first mover advantage, Grayscale still holds a dominant position in revenue. The dual track phenomenon of "stock scale creating income and incremental competition diverting funds" reflects the transition of the ETF market from early monopoly to diversified competition. It is worth noting that although GBTC has long faced pressure from capital outflows, recent data shows that its daily net outflow has dropped from tens of millions of dollars to millions, and even occasional net inflows suggest that market sentiment may improve marginally. From a macro perspective, the total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded the level of billions of US dollars, accounting for over 5% of the total market value of Bitcoin. The flow of funds has become an important factor affecting the volatility of the currency price. Researchers believe that the structural contradictions in the current ETF market (income concentration and fund diversification) may drive product innovation, such as Grayscale launching a mini BTC ETF to try to balance fees and scale, while institutions like BlackRock consolidate market share through continuous inflows. In the future, attention should be paid to the rebalancing effect of regulatory policy changes and institutional investor behavior on capital flows.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to CoinAnk's clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $99000, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $3.925 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $90000, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $5.432 billion. We believe that the current long short game of Bitcoin price near the critical threshold presents a significant asymmetric risk structure. If BTC breaks through $99000, it may trigger a liquidation of $3.925 billion in short positions, which is due to the concentrated stop loss of a large number of highly leveraged short positions when the price rises, forming a "short squeeze" effect. This type of chain liquidation may exacerbate liquidity volatility and push prices further beyond resistance levels. On the contrary, if it falls below $90000, the pressure of clearing multiple orders up to $5.432 billion will be released, reflecting the fragility of the market under the expectation of a pullback, which may trigger a spiral decline of buying and selling more. Data from different periods shows that the clearing threshold and intensity dynamically change with market leverage levels and position structures. For example, data from February 2025 showed that falling below $95000 only triggered over 229 million liquidations, but in April of the same year, the intensity at the same threshold had skyrocketed to the level of billions of dollars, indicating a significant amplification of market risk exposure in a bull market. It should be noted that the liquidation chart reflects relative intensity rather than absolute amount, and its essence is the probability assessment of liquidity shocks when prices touch specific regions. The significant difference in clearing intensity between long and short positions (5.432 billion vs 3.925 billion) suggests that the market is more sensitive to pricing downside risks, or may be related to the recent overcrowding of long positions in the derivatives market. This non-linear liquidation pressure may cause prices to fluctuate dramatically near key levels, and investors need to be alert to extreme market conditions caused by liquidity depletion.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts for the cryptocurrency market. Date, Week, Important Events Canada holds federal elections on Monday, April 28th Wednesday, April 30th 1. Annual Core PCE Price Index for March in the United States (22:00)

5. The World Gold Council releases the first quarter report on "Trends in Gold Demand" Thursday, May 1st 1. Initial jobless claims for the week in the United States (20:30)

6. US April ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)

7. Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook Friday, May 2nd 1. US April unemployment rate (20:30)

8. US April seasonally adjusted non farm employed population (20:30)

We believe that the core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market this week is focused on the linkage effect between US economic data and policy games. Friday's non farm payroll and unemployment rate data will serve as key guidance for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as lower than expected new employment or rising unemployment rates), it may strengthen the market's bet on four interest rate cuts within the year, thereby driving the recovery of risk assets; On the contrary, if the data is strong, it will exacerbate concerns about the duration of high interest rates and suppress market sentiment. The current implied volatility of BTC has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on the short-term direction, but this also sets the stage for a rebound in volatility after the data is released. It is worth noting that Trump's policies continue to disrupt the market. Previously, its tariff policy had caused significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency assets (BTC's decline was significantly greater than ETH's), and the recent easing of sentiment has triggered a market reversal rebound. This policy uncertainty enhances the linkage between cryptocurrency assets and traditional risk assets, especially in the context of weak but not declining US stocks, where funds may accelerate their rotation between the stock and bond markets and the cryptocurrency market. The specific impact path on the cryptocurrency market may exhibit bidirectional fluctuations: on the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts brought about by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological threshold of $100000; On the other hand, the resilience of the job market may continue the current volatile pattern. In the medium term, we need to be vigilant about the policy black swan (such as new tariff measures) and the repeated revisions of liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF fund inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional funds' assessment of systemic risk.