The popular candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman criticized Powell; BTC's weekly increase exceeds 12%, but funding rates remain negative

Macro interpretation: Today is the weekend, and the market volatility is relatively small, but there have also been some macro level dynamics worth discussing. The crisis of Federal Reserve independence, regulatory vacuum, and subtle changes in the form of Bitcoin technology have jointly constructed a new narrative framework for the development of the cryptocurrency market. Behind these seemingly scattered events, there are core clues that may reshape the logic of digital asset value. The Federal Reserve is currently facing an unprecedented test of trust, with former director Kevin Walsh's sharp criticism of current policies during the IMF annual meeting as a potential candidate for the next Fed chairman resonating with rumors of the Trump administration attempting to fire Powell. The risk of administrative intervention in the independence of the central bank is shaking the fundamental confidence of the market in the stability of the US dollar system. It is worth noting that the US treasury bond bond market has experienced abnormal fluctuations - the 30-year treasury bond bond yield has dropped 30 basis points from its April high, and the net capital inflow of $19 billion a week has set a historical record, which not only reflects the rising risk aversion, but also indicates that institutional investors are restructuring their asset portfolios. The cryptocurrency market in the regulatory fog presents a contradictory scene, and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce vividly depicts the awkward situation of US financial institutions in the cryptocurrency business using the metaphor of "the floor is lava". This regulatory uncertainty has led traditional institutions to adopt a roundabout strategy of "not touching the ground", but the derivatives market has shown an alternative prosperity: the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has exceeded 218000 BTC, an increase of 15.6% from early March. Even though the average funding rate has turned negative, indicating a bearish advantage, the activity of leveraged trading still suggests that the market is brewing a turning point. On a technical level, Bitcoin exhibits an intriguing dual signal. When the price returns to the 200 day moving average and sends a positive signal, the daily level 'death cross' follows closely. Historical data shows that among the 10 similar patterns that have occurred since 2009, only some have triggered bear markets, and the contradiction of this technical indicator echoes the current market sentiment. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has broken through the $95000 mark against the backdrop of sustained weakness in the US stock market, and its association with traditional risk assets is undergoing a historic test. The Bitcoin unit reform plan proposed by core developer John Carvalho unexpectedly became a barometer for observing market sentiment. The BIP proposal advocating the abolition of "smart" units and the reshaping of the measurement system may seem to involve technical details, but in reality it touches upon the core narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value. Opponents are concerned that this will dilute the concept of scarcity of 21 million pieces, while supporters believe that lowering the cognitive threshold will accelerate public adoption. The essence of this debate is actually the difficult balance between Bitcoin's dual attributes of "digital gold" and "payment currency". The bearish signals in the derivatives market are in stark contrast to the strong spot prices. According to Coinank data, despite Bitcoin's weekly increase of over 12%, futures funding rates have dropped to -0.023%, indicating that professional traders are building hedge positions. Combined with the upcoming non farm payroll data for April and the core PCE price index, the market seems to be accumulating energy for potential volatility. Interestingly, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to an intra year low of 45%, creating a dramatic contrast between this apparent calm and the "lava" undercurrent in the options market. The continuous fermentation of policy uncertainty is reshaping the safe haven logic of cryptocurrency assets. When the Trump administration tightened federal agency job approvals through the Office of Personnel Management, demonstrating a strong tendency towards administrative intervention, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin gained new value support. From historical data, the multiplier effect between Bitcoin price and Nasdaq index is weakening. If this "decoupling" sign is confirmed in the Federal Reserve independence crisis, it may usher in a new era of digital asset pricing. In this tug of war between traditional finance and the crypto world, market participants need to be wary of some risks: a liquidity crisis that could be triggered by a loss of credibility in the Federal Reserve's policies, institutional entry delays caused by regulatory vacuum, and potential shifts in Bitcoin's own narrative logic. It is worth noting that the World Gold Council's upcoming first quarter demand report may provide a key reference for the revaluation of "digital gold". When the lava begins to solidify, who can build the castle first on the newly formed land may determine the power structure of the next encryption cycle.

BTC data analysis: Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot prices rebounded by 12% on a weekly basis, but the derivatives market released warning signals, with the futures fund rate center sinking to -0.023%, forming the most significant short premium structure in nearly six months. The contract price relative to the spot premium has expanded to 1.2%, indicating that professional traders are building hedging protection through derivatives. The open position of perpetual contracts climbed to 218000 BTC, an expansion of 15.6% from the quarterly low, marking the largest weekly increase in leverage exposure since February 2024. We believe that this round of trading deviates from the logic of exposing three layers of risk: the expansion of leverage exposure and price rebound form an 'asymmetric risk exposure', which may trigger a $3.5 billion chain liquidation when price fluctuations exceed 3%; Furthermore, the continuous negative value of funding rates indicates the accumulation of "short squeeze" risk, with the current concentration of short positions reaching 92% of the historical percentile of CME; In addition, the surge in demand for hedging by market maker Delta has led to a mismatch of liquidity in the spot market, causing the bid ask spread to widen to a three-month peak. For the cryptocurrency market, this structural pressure may slow down the momentum to break through key resistance levels and create opportunities for cross exchange arbitrage, but caution should be exercised against the liquidity spiral caused by black swan events in high leverage environments. Historical data shows that there is a high probability of a 58% increase in central volatility within 30 days after a similar period deviates from the cycle, with a probability of 79%. Currently, the market is entering a period of high sensitivity and fragility.