Macro interpretation: The current cryptocurrency market is undergoing an unprecedented structural transformation. The latest data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has decreased from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77, and the correlation with the Nasdaq index has also contracted from 0.91 at the beginning of the year to 0.83. This trend of "de Americanization" is in sharp contrast to the significant increase in correlation between Bitcoin and gold. The negative correlation value between the two has quickly rebounded from -0.62 at the beginning of the month to -0.31, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually getting rid of the label of a risky asset and returning to the essential attribute of a value storage tool. This shift coincides with the uncertainty of global trade policies, exacerbating the volatility of traditional financial markets. Although the S&P 500 index recorded a 1.67% increase, the trend of selling back more than half of the gains during trading exposed the fragility of market confidence. The enhanced linkage with gold has opened up new valuation space for Bitcoin. The continuous improvement of the correlation coefficient between the two coincides with the largest increase in global central bank gold reserves since 1999. When the US Treasury Department hinted that it would not unilaterally lower its tariffs on China, the anti inflation premium that emerged simultaneously with Bitcoin and gold reflects a fundamental shift in the pricing logic of institutional investors towards geopolitical risks. This transformation is reflected at the micro level as over 37.5% of crypto users are starting to try AI asset management tools. Although there are still doubts about completely entrusting algorithmic operations, 87.1% of respondents have accepted allocating at least 10% of assets to AI agents. This technological enabled investment paradigm revolution is reshaping the decision-making chain of market participants. At the institutional investor level, Coinbase's disclosed trends are more informative. Since April 2025, sovereign wealth funds have been increasing their holdings of Bitcoin on an unprecedented scale, with a clear distinction between their operational pace and retail investors reducing their holdings through ETFs. This reverse operation between institutions and retail investors precisely explains why Coinank data shows that the average 30 day deposit of Bitcoin into exchange addresses has dropped to 52000, only a quarter of the peak three years ago. The phenomenon of "freezing" of holding addresses has reached the level of December 2016, equivalent to temporarily locking trillions of dollars worth of liquidity in a cold wallet, fundamentally reshaping the supply and demand structure of Bitcoin. The evolution of market microstructure has been validated in the derivatives market. Among the $7.2 billion BTC options expiring on April 25th, the maximum pain point of $85000 has formed a significant price difference from the current price of $92300, and the collective profit of call option holders has become a foregone conclusion. This long short game pattern is mutually confirmed by the strong performance of spot ETFs with a net inflow of $917 million for four consecutive days, driving the market value of Bitcoin to exceed $1.87 trillion, officially surpassing Google's parent company and becoming the fifth largest asset in the world. It is worth noting that institutional investors are adopting a dual path layout: continuing to raise funds in the spot market and using the options market for risk hedging. This three-dimensional operational strategy is quite common in traditional commodity markets and is now reappearing in the cryptocurrency field, marking a substantial increase in market maturity. The 10th anniversary celebration of the Ethereum ecosystem has become an important window to observe market sentiment. On the eve of the Genesis Block Day on July 30th, the Global Community Activity Funding Program launched by the foundation is catalyzing a second prosperity of the developer ecosystem. Historical experience has shown that whenever a major milestone is reached in the underlying protocol, it is often accompanied by the opening of a window for technological upgrades. The current efforts of Ethereum to firmly stand at the $1800 mark resonate with the explosive growth of its second layer solutions. The improvement of this infrastructure objectively diverts some speculative funds from Bitcoin, promoting a healthier value rotation pattern in the market. Looking ahead to the future, three core variables will dominate the market direction: firstly, the allocation rhythm of sovereign funds, whose trillion level marginal changes are sufficient to reverse market trends; Secondly, the penetration rate of AI asset management tools. When the proportion of algorithmic trading exceeds a critical point, the market volatility pattern may undergo a qualitative change; Finally, the evolution of the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, if a positive correlation pattern is established, will attract systematic inflows of traditional safe haven funds. It is worth noting that the extreme case of a 40% surge in Trump's currency in a single day serves as a warning that in the current regulatory framework, there are still irrational speculative risks in the market. But overall, driven by the triple drive of continuous institutional hoarding, technological breakthroughs, and macroeconomic resonance, Bitcoin is standing at a new starting point for value reassessment, and the 100000 mark may become the next strategic location for long short games.

BTC data analysis: The Meme token TRUMP, launched by former US President Trump, announced that it will hold a "TRUMP Dinner" on May 22, inviting the top 220 holders of tokens to participate. Among them, the top 25 VIPs will receive additional White House special receptions and private club closed door communication qualifications. The event uses a composite weight mechanism of "token holdings x holding duration" to screen participants, and data shows that the total holdings of the top 25 VIPs have exceeded 2 million TRUMP tokens, with a concentration of 2.099 million tokens. In terms of the market, Coinank data shows that this news has stimulated TRUMP prices to soar nearly 80% in a single day, from a peak of $9.03 to $15.84. The top ten addresses still control 82% of the circulation, and 80% of the project's tokens are in a locked state. Unlocking pressure in the future may cause drastic price fluctuations. It is worth noting that most whales only withdraw coins from exchanges or build positions on the chain after the dinner announcement is released, and only two holders use early build addresses. Democratic lawmakers have criticized the activity for alleged rent-seeking, and the SEC may reassess the security attributes of the token. Although the project team emphasizes that only wallet address verification is required for holding positions, the market still needs to be vigilant about unlocking token flows and the risk of large investors selling. At present, the locked token value is about 2.6 billion US dollars, and the decision to postpone the first round unlocking for 90 days has temporarily eased concerns about selling pressure. This innovative model of "holding is privilege" has attracted institutional funds to enter, but there are also hidden risks of price manipulation. Historical data shows that the project party once cashed out $112 million in a single transaction.