Main institutions enter in large numbers: BTC ETF net inflow of $4 billion for eight consecutive days, approaching the outflow of the first four months!

Macro interpretation: The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing a complex situation of multiple forces intertwined, including retail investors and major institutions. On the one hand, traditional financial institutions are accelerating the layout of Bitcoin ETFs, promoting the migration of capital to encrypted assets; On the other hand, global monetary policy adjustments and regulatory dynamics continue to affect market expectations. We will integrate the latest industry trends and on chain data analysis to reveal the core drivers of Bitcoin prices and their potential market impact. Institutional capital entry accelerates, with Bitcoin ETF becoming a value anchor. The ETF liquidity data disclosed by BlackRock confirms the turning point of Bitcoin as an institutional asset. Data shows that the initial funding for Bitcoin ETFs mainly comes from retail investors, but starting from the second quarter of 2024, top financial institutions including Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS Group began systematic allocation, with a total managed asset size exceeding $10 trillion. It is worth noting that the entry of traditional conservative institutional investors such as the Texas Teacher Retirement System and Emory University marks that Bitcoin has broken through the cognitive boundary of "high-risk speculation" and gradually entered the mainstream asset allocation framework. This trend resonates with on chain data - Bitcoin's market value exceeded its historical peak of $882.2 billion in late April. This indicator is calculated by weighting the last on chain transfer price of each Bitcoin, reflecting the actual "real cost" of entering the market. When the market value crosses a critical threshold, it often triggers a reassessment of the price support level in the market. The current data indicates that even though the price of Bitcoin has not yet surpassed its previous high, the average cost of holders has built a solid foundation, which is highly similar to the characteristics of the early bull markets in 2017 and 2021. At present, the market is also facing regulatory games and liquidity restructuring: the approval strategy of the US SEC for cryptocurrency ETFs shows significant differentiation. Bloomberg data shows that the approval rate of mainstream cryptocurrency related products continues to rise, with a 90% probability of approval for crypto index ETFs, while competing cryptocurrency ETFs such as Solana and XRP face stricter scrutiny. This regulatory stratification has objectively accelerated the accumulation of capital towards Bitcoin. As of the end of April, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs reached $4 billion, which is lower than the same period last year. However, the holding structure has undergone a qualitative change: the proportion of long-term holdings of asset management giants such as BlackRock has increased to 67%, an increase of 21 percentage points compared to the same period last year. It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy shift has had an unexpected catalytic effect on the cryptocurrency market. The tariff policy introduced by the Trump administration in early April forced Japan to postpone its interest rate hike plan, and the pressure of yen depreciation intensified, prompting local institutions to seek Bitcoin as a hedging tool. Historical data shows that whenever the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar falls below the 150 mark, the trading volume of Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges surges by an average of 38%. This cross-border capital flow is reshaping the cryptocurrency market landscape in the Asia Pacific region. Breaking through the critical point of prices and resetting market leverage are also worth paying attention to, as strong signals are released from the technical and derivative markets. The Coinank liquidation heat map shows that a Bitcoin price breakthrough of $96000 will trigger a $1.168 billion short liquidation, which is the largest potential short squeeze threshold since 2021. The distribution of on chain positions shows that $97530 has become a key position in the long short game, corresponding to the accumulated cost line of 462000 Bitcoin positions near the historical high point in November 2021. After breaking through, the market may enter a resistance free zone. The divergence between achieving a new high market value and the formation of futures fund rates reveals the uniqueness of the current market. Although the price of Bitcoin has not yet broken through its previous high, the continuous increase in market value indicates that new funds are digesting early profits, and this "slow bull" accumulation is different from the previous leverage driven surge mode. Option data shows that the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options expiring in May is concentrated in the $92000-$95000 range. If the price stabilizes above this range, it could trigger a revaluation of up to $3.4 billion in option contract value. The trust crisis in the traditional financial system has given rise to alternative solutions, and Eric Trump, Vice President of the Trump Organization, sharply criticized the Dubai Crypto Summit, reflecting the systemic challenges faced by the traditional financial system. Its criticism of the inefficient SWIFT system and unequal banking services echoes BlackRock's research report - the average cost of global cross-border remittances in Q1 2024 is still as high as 6.2%, and blockchain solutions can compress this number to below 1%. This efficiency gap is driving more institutions to explore cryptocurrency infrastructure. According to the latest survey by Fidelity Investments, 83% of institutional investors list "reducing transaction friction" as their primary motivation for allocating cryptocurrency. The market evolution path is gradually becoming clear, and Bitcoin, with its anti censorship and fixed supply mechanism, has become a strategic reserve for institutions to cope with currency oversupply; Ethereum and Layer2 ecosystems undertake the innovation needs of smart contracts; High performance chains such as Solana focus on vertical scenarios such as payment and settlement. This value stratification provides stronger fundamental support for the "digital gold" narrative of Bitcoin. The Grayscale Research Report estimates that if the US M2 money supply maintains an annual growth rate of 4.3%, the market value of Bitcoin is expected to exceed 50% by 2025. The investment logic under structural changes also needs to be transformed, and the essential difference between the current market and previous cycles lies in the qualitative change of participant structure. When the proportion of long-term capital holders such as hedge funds, university endowments, and sovereign wealth funds exceeds 35%, the price volatility of Bitcoin shows a convergence trend. The average 30 day volatility of Bitcoin in 2024 is 42%, a decrease of 19 percentage points from the bull market in 2021, which in turn attracts more conservative funds to enter. For the subsequent market trends, two major catalysts need to be focused on: firstly, the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the synergistic effect of Bitcoin ETF options products. The planned launch of Bitcoin ETF options by Zhishang may bring in $15 billion in new liquidity; Secondly, the dynamic relationship between the holding cost of miners and spot prices after the reduction of Bitcoin production. When the price remains above 2.5 times the cost line, it is usually accompanied by a easing of computing power competition and miners' reluctance to sell in history. If the above conditions resonate, Bitcoin is expected to test new highs in the future, ushering in a new era of cryptocurrency as a macro hedge tool. But without significant positive news, there will still be a deep correction in the market.

BTC data analysis: According to Coinank data, the price of Bitcoin is currently facing a key liquidity threshold zone of $94000 to $96000. The on chain clearing heatmap shows that breaking through $96000 will trigger a clearing shock for approximately $1.17 billion of short positions, while falling below $94000 will lead to a strong consolidation wave of $450 million long positions. This data essentially reflects the distribution of market vulnerability - the liquidation intensity of short positions is 2.6 times that of long positions, exposing the asymmetric risk exposure of current leveraged funds at resistance levels. The structure of derivatives shows that the main clearing pressure is concentrated on the Binance (58%) and OKX (23%) platforms, and the cost center of short positions is concentrated in the range of 95500 to 96500 US dollars. This type of liquidation intensive area often forms a price magnetic effect: if the key level is broken, the buying caused by short selling will self reinforce the price trend, forming a "liquidation driven bull market"; On the contrary, it may trigger multiple killings and stampedes. The current Bitcoin volatility surface shows extreme distortion, with a call option premium above 96000 sharply increasing by 47%, indicating that market makers have predicted a breakthrough probability. For the crypto ecosystem, this highly elastic structure may accelerate market style switching - if successfully broken through, small and medium-sized tokens may usher in a window of replenishment; If hindered from falling back, institutions may turn to volatility arbitrage strategies, driving a surge in demand for reverse short selling tools for Bitcoin ETFs. Historical data shows that after triggering a clearing intensity threshold, the central volatility increased by an average of 62% within 72 hours. It is recommended to pay attention to cross exchange arbitrage opportunities and fluctuations in stablecoin market value.