catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs;

4. The counterfeit index remains low;

5. Key macro events and financial data forecasts for this week.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   This week's unlocking details for multiple projects are announced, sorted by unlocking value as follows: Cheeree (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens worth approximately $162 million at 8:00 am Beijing time on March 13th; Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 4.33 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time on March 15th, with a ratio of 376.3% to the current flow and a value of approximately 78 million US dollars; Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 6am Beijing time on March 13th, with a ratio of 1.92% to the current flow and a value of approximately 67.4 million US dollars; Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 17.22 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time on March 14th, with a ratio of 28.52% to the current flow and a value of approximately 35.3 million US dollars; Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens at 8pm Beijing time on March 15th, with a ratio of 1.19% to the current flow and a value of approximately 11.8 million US dollars; Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 64 million tokens at 8am Beijing time on March 15th, with a ratio of 2.33% to the current flow and a value of approximately $11 million; Staika (STIK) will unlock approximately 1.5 million tokens worth around 7.8 million US dollars at 8:00 am Beijing time on March 10th.

The unlocking status of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the relevant markets. The above is UTC+8 time. This week, pay attention to the negative effects of unlocking these tokens, avoid spot trading, and seek short selling opportunities in contracts. The figure shows Coinark data, among which CONX, CHEEL, ZKJ, and APT account for a large proportion and scale of unlocked circulation, so pay more attention.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency market has generally shown an outflow trend by concept sector, with only the fan token sector achieving net inflows of funds, while other smaller net outflows are concentrated in Launchpool RWA、brc20、 There are several major fields such as metaverse and storage blocks. In the past week, many currencies have also experienced cyclical increases. Select the top 500 tokens with relatively high market value, such as AUDIO, REN, SHELL, MERL, HMSTR, and ENA, and continue to prioritize trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs. CoinAnk data shows that last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $739.2 million, with a net outflow of $22.1 million in just four trading days. Among them, BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of $129.6 million; Fidelity FBTC has a net outflow of $201 million, which has been continuously flowing out for 6 weeks; ARKB net outflow of $163.5 million; Grayscale GBTC net outflow of 125.4 million US dollars. The US Bitcoin spot ETF market has experienced capital outflows for four consecutive weeks. With the withdrawal of institutional investors, weak demand has disrupted the supply and demand balance of Bitcoin, causing it to fall 8.76% in the past week. We believe that the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs for four consecutive weeks (reaching $739 million last week) reflects the deepening rebalancing strategy of institutional investors under macro uncertainty. The simultaneous outflow of top products such as BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC ($130 million and $200 million respectively) indicates that traditional asset management institutions are addressing potential liquidity risks by reducing their exposure to Bitcoin, which is closely related to the risk asset valuation restructuring triggered by the rise in US Treasury yields to 4.6%. In terms of short-term transmission mechanism, the outflow of ETF funds directly impacts the supply-demand balance in the spot market. According to current data, the daily net outflow is about $185 million, equivalent to 2.3 times the daily selling volume of miners (about 900 BTC), creating significant selling pressure. Stacked on chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders selling at a loss has risen to 68%, and the market has entered a negative feedback loop of "institutional withdrawal price decline panic selling". The mid-term structural contradictions are reflected in two types of differentiation: one is the stratification of liquidity within ETFs, with a slowdown in the outflow of gray GBTC (125 million vs 180 million in the previous week) and an accelerated withdrawal of Fidelity, which may indicate that some institutions are turning to low rate products; Secondly, the concentration of holdings on the Bitcoin chain has increased, with the giant whale address (holding 1000+BTC) increasing its holdings by 12000 against the trend, forming a bottoming out feature of "weak hands changing hands to strong hands". The current market is in the liquidity repricing stage of the mid bull market, and the reversal of ETF fund flow needs to wait for two major signals: one is that the US CPI data has fallen, reigniting expectations of interest rate cuts; the other is that Bitcoin volatility has fallen to a low level this year (current 44% vs peak 78%), attracting allocation funds to flow back. Historical data shows that institutional led adjustment cycles often complete chip exchanges with a "sharp decline and slow rise", and the current price may be nearing the end of short-term risk release.

3. The counterfeit index continues to decline. According to CoinAnk data, the Altcoin Season Index is currently around 17 and has been below 25 for 12 consecutive days since February 27th. This is a function to measure the popularity of altcoins, which calculates how many tokens in the top 100 assets by market value have outperformed BTC in terms of market performance. If the value is around 75, the market is more likely to be in the Altcoin Season, and below 25, it is highly likely to be in the Bitcoin Season. Among the top 100 tokens in terms of market capitalization, only 17 tokens have seen an increase of more than BTC in the past 90 days, including BERA (+499%), IP (+81%), BGB (+78%), and others. BTC's performance during the same period was -15%. We believe that the knockoff season index has been below 25 points for 12 consecutive days (currently 17), revealing that the current cryptocurrency market is still trapped in a safe haven mode dominated by Bitcoin. Although BTC fell by 15% during the same period, only 17 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies in terms of market value outperformed, reflecting the highly selective allocation of funds under liquidity tightening - BERA (+499%), BGB (+78%) and other contrarian gains. Essentially, this is the concentration of capital towards strong narratives (such as DePIN, AI agents) and the safe haven nature of exchange platform coins, rather than the overall recovery of market risk appetite. There are three reasons for structural differentiation: firstly, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs for five consecutive weeks (totaling over 2.8 billion US dollars) has led to a contraction of the overall liquidity pool in the cryptocurrency market, forcing funds to concentrate from high beta assets to deterministic targets; Secondly, the yield on US Treasury bonds has risen to 4.6%, suppressing risk appetite, and the leverage ratio of retail investors (loan balance/market value) has dropped to 0.8% (a new low for the year), weakening the speculative momentum of altcoins; Thirdly, new public chains (such as Berachain) innovate their token distribution mechanisms to attract the migration of existing funds, creating local hotspots but failing to activate global rotation. At the implicit signal level, the coexistence of "point like bursts" and "surface like weakness" in the excess returns of altcoins reflects that the market is undergoing a narrative restructuring period - the valuation of general-purpose tracks such as DeFi and GameFi in the previous cycle is still to be clarified, and capital has advanced the layout of modular, parallel and other infrastructure iteration directions. Historical data shows that the start of the knockoff season often lags behind Bitcoin's bottoming out by 1-2 months, and the current BTC volatility has dropped to a low for the year (30 day volatility of 26%), providing a window for fund switching. But the reversal of trend requires two major conditions: the reversal of Bitcoin ETF fund flow and the net inflow of stablecoins exceeding the monthly average threshold of 3 billion US dollars.

4. Key macro events and financial data forecast for this week: US CPI+PPI, North American daylight saving time.

5. Monday: ① Data: Japan Trade Account, Eurozone Investor Confidence Index, New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation; ② Starting from daylight saving time in North America, the timing of US stock trading and economic data releases will be advanced by one hour Trump meets with US tech industry executives; ④ The tariffs imposed by China on some imported goods originating from the United States have officially come into effect.

6. Tuesday: ① Data: JOLTs job vacancies and NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in the United States; ② US and Ukrainian officials hold their first meeting in Saudi Arabia.

7. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventory and EIA crude oil inventory, US February CPI; ② Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision; ③ EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; ④ European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers speech; ⑤ OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report; ⑥ The G7 group will hold a foreign ministers' meeting until March 14th The United States has implemented a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum.

8. Thursday: ① Data: Eurozone January industrial output rate, US initial jobless claims, February PPI annual rate; ② IEA releases monthly crude oil market report.

9. Friday: ① Data: January industrial output monthly rate in the UK, January wholesale sales monthly rate in Canada, initial expected one-year inflation rate in March in the US, and initial consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan; ② The current temporary funding bill of the US government has expired.

We believe that this week's US CPI and PPI data will have a core impact on the cryptocurrency market. As a key indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, if inflation data is higher than expected (such as CPI remaining high year-on-year or PPI rebounding), it may strengthen market expectations for a delayed interest rate cut. Historical data shows that in such scenarios, the expectation of tightening US dollar liquidity is heating up, risk assets are generally under pressure, and the cryptocurrency market may face short-term selling pressure. In addition, the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs by the United States may drive up imported inflation through supply chain cost transmission, further constraining the Federal Reserve's loose space and indirectly suppressing risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. On the other hand, Trump's policies have a hedging effect. Their meetings with technology executives and support for the cryptocurrency industry, such as the Bitcoin Reserve Program, may boost long-term market confidence, but the risk of trade frictions caused by tariffs remains uncertain. Although the opening of daylight saving time changes trading hours, the substantive impact is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in market liquidity during the data release period. Other events such as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, OPEC report, and crude oil inventory data may affect inflation expectations through fluctuations in energy prices, which could then be transmitted to cryptocurrency pricing. Overall, the short-term volatility of the cryptocurrency market will significantly increase, and investors need to closely monitor the deviation between CPI/PPI and market expectations, as well as the interaction between Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical events.