catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs;

4. BTC clearing map data;

5. Forecast and analysis of key macro events and financial data for this week.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   This week's unlocking details for multiple projects are announced, sorted by unlocking value as follows: Metars Genesis (MRS) will unlock 10 million tokens at 8am on March 23rd, with a ratio of 11.87% to current flow and a value of approximately $97.4 million; Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens at 8am on March 18th, with a ratio of 4.65% to current flow and a value of approximately $79.8 million; QuantixAI (QAI) will unlock approximately 566000 tokens at 8am on March 18th, with a ratio of 3960.24% to current flow and a value of approximately $41.4 million; MANTRA (OM) will unlock 5 million tokens at 8am on March 23rd, with a ratio of 0.51% to the current flow and a value of approximately 32.8 million US dollars; Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8am on March 19th, with a ratio of 25.72% to current flow and a value of approximately $31.8 million; SPACE ID (ID) will unlock 78.49 million tokens at 8:00 am on March 22nd, with a ratio of 18.23% to the current flow and a value of approximately 19.3 million US dollars; Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock 26.25 million tokens at 8am on March 18th, with a current flow ratio of 17.50% and a value of approximately $17.6 million; Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens at 8am on March 21st, with a ratio of 1.39% to current flow and a value of approximately $13.4 million; ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.6 million tokens at 8:30 pm on March 17th, with a ratio of 1.95% to current flow and a value of approximately $8 million; Murasaki (MURA) will unlock 10 million tokens at 8:00 am on March 23rd, with a ratio of 1.00% to current flow and a value of approximately 7.4 million US dollars; Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock approximately 117 million tokens at 6pm on March 17th, with a ratio of 7.93% to the current flow and a value of approximately $5 million.

The unlocking status of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the relevant markets. The above is UTC+8 time. This week, pay attention to the negative effects of unlocking these tokens, avoid spot trading, and seek short selling opportunities in contracts. The figure shows Coinark data, among which MRS, FTN, QAI, and MELANIA have a large proportion and scale of unlocked circulation, so pay more attention. We believe that from the perspective of cryptocurrency liquidity management, large-scale centralized unlocking of tokens often leads to the reconstruction of market supply and demand relationships. The release of tokens for the 11 projects disclosed this time presents three key characteristics: some projects have abnormally high unlocking ratios (such as QAI's newly added circulation reaching 39.6 times the existing), which may trigger a liquidity crisis; High market value projects such as MRS unlocking nearly $100 million worth of chips in a single transaction pose a test for the secondary market's carrying capacity; Multiple projects will be unlocked during the March 18-23 window period, which may create a cumulative effect of market sentiment. The impact of token unlocking on prices varies in different paths: underlying protocol projects (such as IMX) may experience short-term selling pressure or be relatively controllable due to ecological application support; However, Moneybands (MELANIA) and high liquidity projects (QAI) face greater risk of value revaluation. It is worth noting that some projects choose to release ecological application progress synchronously after unlocking (such as Polyhedra Network's ZK technology upgrade), and this market value management strategy may buffer market impact. It is recommended to focus on the on chain flow data of unlocking tokens, especially the abnormal movements of institutional holdings, in order to predict potential market turning points.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency market has maintained an overall outflow trend, divided by concept sectors. Only four sectors, namely Binance Smart Chain, Ethereum Ecology, Game Concept, and Fan Token, have achieved net inflows of funds, while other smaller net outflows are concentrated in several major areas such as Launchpool, Metaverse, RWA, and BRC20. In the past week, many currencies have also experienced cyclical increases. Select the top 500 tokens with relatively high market value, such as FORM, MERL, DBR, VANA, TON, and SLF, and continue to prioritize trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. The inflow and outflow of funds in spot ETFs. According to CoinAnk data, the net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past week was $829.9 million, with a total reduction of 10358.34 BTC holdings. Only on Wednesday, there was a slight inflow of 160.44 BTC, while the rest of the time was a net outflow. Among them, BlackRock reduced its holdings of 4239.38 and Fidelity reduced its holdings of 3813.02. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has reduced its Bitcoin holdings by 4.76% since February 6, 2025. From January 1st to February 6th, these funds added approximately 56802.86 bitcoins to their balance sheets, but over the past 35 days, their holdings have decreased by 55348.00 bitcoins. The total value of Bitcoin held by these funds is 93.25 billion US dollars, accounting for approximately 5.6% of the total market value of Bitcoin. IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC - together account for 85.26% of the entire ETF group's 1.121 million Bitcoin holdings. We believe that there has been a significant institutional withdrawal trend in the recent cash flow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the past week, there was a net outflow of 829.9 million US dollars, with a weekly reduction of over 10000 BTC holdings. BlackRock and Fidelity, the two major institutions, reduced their holdings of 4239 and 3813 BTC respectively, becoming the main sellers. This phenomenon continues the reduction cycle since February 6th, with a cumulative reduction of 55348 BTC within 35 days, accounting for 4.76% of the total holdings, reflecting the adjustment of institutional investors' short-term price expectations for Bitcoin. It is worth noting that the current total holdings of ETFs still reach 1.121 million BTC, valued at approximately 93.25 billion US dollars, accounting for 5.6% of the total market value of Bitcoin. Among them, IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC products account for 85% of the market share. This indicates a high degree of market concentration, and the operations of top institutions have an amplifying effect on price fluctuations. Based on historical data, BlackRock IBIT once set a record of net inflows of $2.022 billion per week in 2024, and recent consecutive outflows indicate a shift in its strategy towards defense. From the perspective of market impact, the sustained net outflow of ETFs has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance. Due to the daily need for ETFs to buy and sell spot stocks in the secondary market to meet market share changes, large-scale reductions directly increase market selling pressure, which is consistent with the 18% drop in Bitcoin prices from a high of $102400. In addition, the stock of BTC on the exchange has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, and the contraction of liquidity may further amplify price fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the flow of institutional funds and the game of miner selling pressure after halving, which will determine the medium-term price center of Bitcoin.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to CoinAnk's clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $86000, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $1.15 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $80000, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $1.21 billion. We believe that the current clearing threshold formed by Bitcoin in the $80000 to $86000 range reveals a fierce confrontation between long and short forces at key price levels. The price elasticity feature is significant: if it exceeds 86000 US dollars, it will trigger the liquidation of 1.15 billion US dollars of short positions, which may trigger "short squeeze" and accelerate the upward trend of prices; On the contrary, if it falls below 80000 US dollars, it will face a strong consolidation of 1.21 billion US dollars or exacerbate short-term panic selling. At the level of market structure drivers, the current liquidation peak corresponds to two major characteristics: firstly, the differentiation of leverage ratios, with short positions accounting for 58% of the open interest volume of perpetual contracts (concentrated above 86000), while long positions have accumulated leverage below 80000, reflecting the market's cautious expectations of a high before the breakthrough; The second is liquidity stratification, with a turnover rate of 1.3 times the daily average trading volume near $80000 on the chain, forming a dual support of technical and psychological aspects. On the potential transmission path, if the price breaks through $86000, the liquidity released by short selling liquidation may attract trend tracking strategy funds to enter, pushing the price to test the $90000 mark. But we need to be wary of the profit taking pressure caused by the sudden increase in derivative funding rates (currently 0.01%). If it falls below $80000, a strong consolidation of multiple orders may resonate with the outflow of ETF funds (last week's net outflow of $830 million), but the Whale address has increased its holdings of 24000 BTC in the range of 78000-80000, which may provide a buffer. In the coming week, we need to focus on two types of signals: one is whether the CME Bitcoin futures position gap (currently reported at $84500) can guide the price to make up for the gap; The second is whether the net inflow of stablecoins has exceeded the monthly average threshold of 3 billion US dollars to support buying. The current market may enter the eve of a "high volatility breakthrough", but the direction selection requires the synergistic verification of macro liquidity (such as non farm data) and on chain chip distribution.

4. Key macro events and financial data forecasts for this week. This week, global macroeconomic data is being released intensively, and we need to focus on three main logic lines: the expected difference in central bank monetary policy, the verification of inflation stickiness, and the marginal change in US dollar liquidity. These three main lines will be transmitted to the cryptocurrency market through market risk appetite and capital costs. 1、 Federal Reserve Policy Path: Short term Volatility Core Variables. The FOMC decision (Thursday) is the focus of the market. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in June has decreased from 76% at the beginning of the month to 55% (CME data). If the dot matrix chart maintains the expectation of three rate cuts within the year, it will ease market concerns about prolonged tightening and benefit risk assets; But if the Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP) raises inflation or GDP growth rates, it may trigger a market repricing of 'higher for longer', leading to a short-term correction in BTC. Powell's press conference needs to pay attention to his statement on the bank reserve balance (TGA account replenishment progress) and the pace of balance sheet reduction. The unexpected liquidity contraction will suppress the activity of leveraged funds in the cryptocurrency market. 2、 Global central bank linkage: risk shift in non US monetary policies. The decision of the Bank of Japan (Tuesday) marks a historic turning point, with the market pricing for ending negative interest rates reaching 85% (Reuters survey). If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates for the first time in 17 years, it may trigger the liquidation of carry trades, causing the yen to flow back to the domestic market and putting liquidity pressure on highly leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency market. If the Swiss and Swedish central banks continue their interest rate cut probe on Thursday, it will strengthen the European loose narrative and widen the policy gap with the Federal Reserve, which may push funds to tilt towards non US assets. BTC may benefit from the safe haven demand for euro denominated funds. 3、 Inflation data validation: anchoring effect of real interest rates. If the core indicator of the Eurozone CPI in February (Wednesday) is higher than the previous value of 3.1%, it will weaken the market's bet on the European Central Bank's interest rate cut in April, push the US Germany bond spread to narrow, and put pressure on the US dollar index, which may indirectly support BTC. Japan's core CPI (Friday), if it breaks through 2.4% (previously 2.0%), may force the Bank of Japan to accelerate tightening, forming an extreme scenario of "US Japan policy resonance tightening", the volatility of the cryptocurrency market (BTC DVOL index) may soar by more than 20% in a single day.

Inference of the Impact Path on the Cryptocurrency Market: Liquidity valve effect: If the Federal Reserve releases a "precautionary interest rate cut" signal (such as emphasizing banking pressure or job market cracks), a drop in the US dollar index below 102.5 will trigger BTC to break through its previous high of $72000; On the contrary, if the dot matrix reduces the number of interest rate cuts, BTC may test the support level of $60000. Cross market volatility transmission: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may trigger a chain clearing of the cryptocurrency derivatives market (currently BTC perpetual contract funding rate reaches 0.12%/8h, leverage ratio is at a high level), and we need to be alert to the risk of flash crashes during the Asian trading session. Inflation narrative shift: If the monthly retail sales rate in the United States exceeds expectations (market forecast+0.5%), it may strengthen the expectation of an "inflation rate hike" spiral, prompting some funds to shift from BTC to anti inflation bonds (TIPS). However, in the medium to long term, the monetization logic of fiscal deficits still supports the hedging properties of cryptocurrency assets.