Macro interpretation: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order signed by Trump today is like throwing a dumb nuclear bomb into the cryptocurrency market. Why do I say this? Because the Bitcoin reserves that have been hyped up for years since the second half of last year are actually different from what most people expected. There are so many news reports about Trump signing the executive order on encrypted reserves, but this one is the most important: the government will not acquire any assets for reserve assets other than those obtained through confiscation procedures. I joked with my friends that, to put it simply, what was seized and confiscated in the past is considered a reserve, and they won't spend an extra penny to buy it. This is prepared to be stingy and empty handed to trap a white wolf. The Fox report is similar to my interpretation a few days ago. If taxpayers' money is used to buy it, congressional approval is required, which is almost impossible to achieve. So, the ultimate result is that there won't be much change, we won't spend money to buy, and we'll use the confiscated assets as reserves. This policy, referred to as the "digital age gold standard experiment" by crypto czar David Sacks, appears to only involve the management of confiscated assets, but in reality harbors ambitions to reshape the global monetary landscape. When the basement of the Ministry of Finance building began counting the "spoils" of Bitcoin, the crypto world was undergoing a test - in the short term, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated repeatedly at the $88000 mark, neither breaking through the psychological barrier of $90000 nor falling below the support level of $84000. The market was searching for a new balance point in the policy fog. The "surgical knife style" design of the executive order is exquisite: it not only avoids the moral hazard of using taxpayer funds, but also cleverly builds a framework for national digital asset reserves. According to policy guidelines, the Ministry of Finance will not only take over 174000 bitcoins confiscated in the Silk Road case, but also reserve operational space to convert civil fines into digital reserves. This "war for war" model allows the US government to act as both a referee and an athlete, accumulating strategic assets while combating crime. As the strategy director of 21Shares stated, this is equivalent to establishing a "fiat harvester" in the crypto world - every regulatory blow can add ammunition to digital vaults. The immediate response of the market to this is full of black humor. Bitcoin fell 4.2% in response, exposing investors' disappointment with the "store old, not buy new" policy. This reserve strategy of "wanting the horse to run while the horse doesn't eat grass" has left speculators who were expecting the government to buy heavily empty handed. The overnight cryptocurrency market and the US stock market formed a "miserable" duo, with Nasdaq's 2.61% decline resonating with the general decline of altcoins. This linkage confirms the judgment of grayscale research: the safe haven attribute of Bitcoin still needs time to settle, and it is still a "follower" of risky assets at present. The long tail effect of policies is surging in the dark. Among the nine transformative scenarios depicted by Bitwise research, 'central banks of various countries are forced to follow suit' is the most disruptive. When the United States includes Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, it is equivalent to installing a cryptocurrency engine into the global monetary system. Countries with thin foreign exchange reserves may view Bitcoin as "Digital Gold 2.0". Senator Cynthia Lummis' suggestion that 'this is just the beginning' has further alerted the market to the continued escalation of policies. This "boiling frog in warm water" regulatory evolution may be more lethal than direct legislation. In this battle between national strategy and market competition, policies have neither taken bold and decisive actions to rescue the market nor allowed regulatory vacuum to continue. Instead, they have precisely removed policy tumors that hinder industry development. When institutions are required to submit Bitcoin transfer permission reports within 30 days, the dark web black market may suffer from collective insomnia - this means that the US government will establish the world's most powerful on chain surveillance network. The dual countdown of non farm data and encryption summit injects new variables into the market. The combination of "employment winter meets wage inflation" warned by Ruixun Bank's analysis may force the Federal Reserve to "tango" on the road to interest rate cuts. The uncertainty of this monetary policy is precisely in line with the regulatory signals that may be released by the White House Crypto Summit. Smart funds have begun to lay out - some institutional investors are seeing Bitcoin as a "Noah's Ark" against tariff inflation, as Trump's tariff stick may overshadow traditional safe haven assets. The 'Dunkirk evacuation' of the crypto world is unfolding: short-term pains are inevitable, but the establishment of a strategic reserve system is essentially a national credit endorsement for digital assets. When one day in the future, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will feature a Bitcoin account, and central banks around the world will begin discussing the proportion of "encrypted reserve currencies," people may recall this spring of 2025- when the US government quietly toppled the first domino of the traditional financial system with an executive order. This quiet revolution is rewriting the millennium narrative of value storage.

BTC data analysis: Earlier today, it was reported that Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and will not sell any Bitcoin stored in the reserve. According to Coinank data, the US government's public wallet currently holds 198109 BTC (worth $16.92 billion at current prices). But currently, the maximum balance of Bitcoin available for the US government to use as a strategic reserve is 88000 BTC, accounting for only 43% of the current government holdings. This is because of the approximately 198000 BTC currently held by the US government, 112000 BTC will be returned to Bitfinex. Note: The large amount of BTC held by the US government comes from the investigation of the Bitfinex theft case, which occurred in August 2016 and resulted in a loss of approximately 120000 BTC. Bitfinex is currently attempting to recover this portion of BTC, and it is expected that a lengthy legal process will be required in the future. The Trump administration's initiative to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin has multiple strategic intentions, but its feasibility and actual effectiveness are still controversial. Firstly, the policy positions Bitcoin as "digital gold" with the aim of strengthening the United States' dominant position in the digital asset sector and attempting to enhance economic security through national reserves. However, of the approximately 198000 BTC currently held by the US government, 43% (88000) can be used for strategic reserves, while the remaining 112000 need to be returned to Bitfinex. This means that the actual effectiveness of the reserves may be lower than the surface data, and subsequent legal processes may further compress the available amount. From a policy perspective, the Trump team may hope to gain support from the crypto community through this move, consolidating their political image as "innovators". However, economists generally question its economic rationality, pointing out that government holdings of Bitcoin face high opportunity costs, which cannot be directly monetized to alleviate fiscal pressure, and may also increase risks due to price fluctuations. In addition, the establishment of reserves relies on confiscated assets rather than active purchases, which limits the expansion of scale and requires coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the judiciary. The deeper challenge lies in institutional contradictions. Although executive orders can quickly activate reserves, long-term maintenance requires legislative support from Congress, and opposition from traditional financial institutions and conservatives may hinder the legislative process. Meanwhile, there is a potential conflict between including Bitcoin as a reserve asset and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy objectives, and Powell has explicitly stated that he will not participate in the plan, highlighting the difficulty of policy coordination. Overall, this policy is more politically symbolic and can boost market confidence and strengthen the US policy presence in the cryptocurrency field in the short term, but its actual economic value remains to be verified. Its success or failure will depend on the efficiency of resolving legal disputes, the stability of Bitcoin prices, and subsequent legislative breakthroughs, while the election cycle may further weaken the continuity of policies.