Introduction: palm oil has entered a seasonal production increase cycle, but geopolitical factors have greatly affected the export of Ukrainian sunflower oil and rapeseed oil, and the demand has shifted to soybean oil and palm oil. As the short-term demand increment is greater than the supply growth, the low levels of horse palm inventory and American bean inventory continue to decline. It is difficult to alleviate the short-term shortage of bulk oil supply before the export of Ukrainian vegetable oil recovers. In the medium and long term, palm oil production will gradually increase in the later stage; The planting area of American beans will increase in advance, and the balance of supply and demand of American beans will turn to loose according to the trend per unit yield.