The 2024 US elections were not just a pivotal moment in American politics—they also became a defining catalyzer for Polymarket, the most successful blockchain-based prediction market. In the lead-up to November 5th, Polymarket experienced an unprecedented surge in activity, with its main election market and numerous secondary markets fueling a meteoric rise in user engagement and trading volumes. Some anticipated a steep and definitive decline following the resolution of these election-related markets, reminiscent of the collapse Augur experienced after its own peak in 2021.

Polymarket has emerged as a rising star in consumer crypto, especially driven by the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the related events. Many crypto experts have praised Polymarket’s success in achieving product-market fit, notably without relying on tokens or external incentives. As of this writing, Polymarket has once again hit an all-time high in daily and monthly active users, as well as in daily and monthly transactions. In terms of total volume, it is nearing $500 million in monthly trades for the third consecutive month.

Originally published on Dune Analytics Blog on July 8, 2024

I’m pleased to share here the analysis I wrote for Dune Analytics’ blog on May 20th, 2024.

How Arbitrum Aims to Secure its Position in the Growing Gaming Landscape

As Arbitrum just marked the first anniversary since the launch of its nativer token ARB on March 23rd, 2023, a striking discrepancy emerges in the market dynamics between Optimism and Arbitrum. Despite Arbitrum boasting superior metrics, ARB's price consistently hovers at approximately half that of Optimism. Is the market overvaluing Optimism? A closer examination reveals that the OP token price may reflect not just Optimism itself but also the performance of the broader OP Stack. When factoring in the substantial contribution of Base, the revenue multiple (Price-to-Sales ratio) leans lower than Arbitrum, suggesting that OP is potentially less overvalued.

In social media platforms and their economies, content and engagement serve as 'currency’. Akin to some traditional currencies, they are experiencing inflation.

Points serve as engagement units that organizations leverage to reward users for completing specific tasks. Their application extends far beyond crypto, encompassing airline miles, hotel booking levels, loyalty programs like Starbucks’, and more. An intriguing, albeit lesser-known, application of similar incentive structures is observed in certain ethnic minority villages in China.

The article examines economies of scale in Ethereum rollups, highlighting Optimism's decreasing costs per transaction and Mb of data with higher volumes, suggesting efficiency gains. In contrast, Arbitrum shows increasing costs per transaction and Mb with higher volumes, indicating potential inefficiencies. Further research is needed for a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding.