There has been an insane amount of hype surrounding AI over the past few months. Supposedly, Teslas are going to entirely drive themselves in a year or two, AI will be smarter than humans next year, and an army of a billion AI-powered robots will replace human workers by 2040, and that is just the AI promises made by Elon Musk so far this year. The entire AI industry is awash with predictions and promises like this, and it feels like AI development is on an unstoppable exponential trajectory we humans simply can’t stop. However, that is far from the truth. You see, AI is starting to hit a development ceiling of diminishing returns, rendering these extravagant promises utterly hollow. Let me explain.