After the major crash on February 3, Bitcoin’s price has been fluctuating around $97,000. People are speculating whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom.
The most optimistic outlook comes from Grayscale, who believes Bitcoin’s price will hit new highs soon.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, thinks that despite January’s U.S. job growth missing expectations, Bitcoin’s future remains bright. This is because the market has already priced in the pressure from interest rate hikes, and any policy changes in the coming months could have a positive impact on Bitcoin. Particularly, legislative progress regarding stablecoins could provide strong support for Bitcoin and digital assets’ further growth.
Pandl predicts that as long as the stock market remains stable, Bitcoin could reach new highs in the first quarter of 2025.
However, it’s important to note that Pandl’s forecast of a new high in the first quarter has a condition — the stock market needs to remain stable. So, if Bitcoin fails to hit a new high, you can’t blame Pandl, as it could very well be because the “stock market didn’t stay stable.”
A more conservative view comes from Felix Hartmann, the founder of venture capital firm Hartmann Capital. He says, “It might be early, but it feels like we’re near the bottom.”
His reasoning is that long periods of negative funding rates and widespread pessimism are signals of a market reversal. Negative funding rates mean there are more sellers than buyers, which usually reflects a pessimistic market sentiment, suggesting that a rebound could be imminent. If you're not familiar with funding rates, it’s something you should quickly study up on. This is a key term in perpetual contracts, and I’ve written a beginner’s guide on perpetual contracts that might help you understand it better.
In addition to the funding rate, Hartmann points out that many quality altcoins (like Ethereum and Solana) have retraced to long-term trend lines, essentially “erasing” all gains from Q4 2024. For example, Ethereum briefly crossed $4,000 in December 2024, but its price has since dropped to around $2,600. Ethereum's case is a bit special, and there are strong opinions about whether Ethereum’s price can outperform Solana, which I’ll discuss in another article — whether Ethereum can achieve “greatness” again.
As for Bitcoin’s price forecast, my view is:
Predicting short-term price movements is essentially like flipping a coin.
There’s always a 50% chance of being right, so many people try their luck, hoping to have bragging rights if they get it right. Personally, I don’t predict prices. I won’t tell you whether we’ve hit the bottom or not. However, I do want to offer a safer course of action, so you’re not caught off guard by a sudden drop or miss an opportunity to buy at the bottom. That advice is:
Never trade on the left side, always trade on the right side.
I want to emphasize the importance of “market psychology” and “risk control” in trading. Left-side trading typically refers to trying to catch a rebound by predicting that prices have already bottomed out during a market decline. Right-side trading, on the other hand, involves waiting until the market confirms a trend reversal before entering. This strategy reduces the risk of blindly predicting market bottoms, especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, where incorrect predictions can lead to significant losses.
I wouldn’t recommend this advice for beginners because not only is it tough on your psychology, but it’s also hard to distinguish between left and right side trades. On February 3, when Bitcoin fell below $92,000, I wrote an article titled, “Bitcoin Drops Below $92,000: Is the Bull Market Over, or Just a Bear Trap?” In that article, I introduced the DCA method, which is very suitable for beginners. It also includes an airdrop reference to the ARP2 project, which offers excellent rebalancing services.
Since predicting Bitcoin’s short-term price is difficult, I won’t waste your time. Let’s talk about a hot topic lately: the use of Bitcoin and Ethereum for investment immigration in Hong Kong. I find it strange that this is getting so much attention.
Crypto is just proof of assets, that’s all. Simply telling the Hong Kong authorities “I have Bitcoin” won’t get you a visa. You need to use these cryptocurrencies for specific investments in order to obtain the immigration visa. The investment targets could be stocks, bonds, or even starting a business. Essentially, your money has to leave your blockchain wallet. There’s also a minimum investment requirement of HKD 30 million.
Now you see why I find it strange that this news is so popular.
Finally, let me end with something that might boost your confidence: another U.S. university has started investing in Bitcoin.
The University of Austin has announced a $5 million Bitcoin investment fund. This fund will be part of the school’s $200 million endowment and is planned to be held for at least five years.
Chun Lai, the Chief Investment Officer of the University of Austin Foundation, said that the university doesn’t want to be left behind when the digital currency’s potential finally explodes. The first university to make this move was Emory University, which announced a $15 million investment in Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF three months ago.
There’s no doubt that U.S. universities and other institutions are gradually becoming more accepting of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. A long-term holding strategy is seen as a relatively stable investment approach.
After all, if Bitcoin’s price does indeed reach $42.3 million per coin in the future, will you still care about whether this is the bottom?
About Airdrop Reference
Airdrop Reference is an innovative blockchain education and promotion platform aimed at spreading basic blockchain knowledge and helping ordinary users understand and participate in the development of blockchain technology. The mission of this project is to lower the entry barriers to blockchain, promote high-quality blockchain projects, and allow more people to enjoy the benefits of the Web3.0 era.
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